Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa284238d37bdd9daeec55099dc70cb8daf4e1a731500743bce32a6eee11c0cc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 1,998$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 600$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.61 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 78c | 507.14$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.06 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 73c | 491.33$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.53 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 464.37$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 7c | 437.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 434.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 411.46$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 372.03$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 78c | 365.91$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 24c | 306.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 297$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 24c | 292.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 263.68$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 31c | 262.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 249.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 16c | 219.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 201.71$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 80c | 189$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 181.36$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 29c | 171.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 171.45$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 162.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 12c | 154.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 26c | 138.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 104.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 98.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 73c | 72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 66.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 63.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 21c | 60.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 22c | 57.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 69c | 50.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 50.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 41.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…83b0backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 31.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 66c | 29.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 76c | 28.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 27.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 80c | 27.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 73c | 24.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 22.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 78c | 22.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 78c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.