Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9390e3c76a8f6a62a94ffee166d7e5769c74206f39b135c43480609bbf6c3667
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 71c | 1,198$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.03 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 47c | 1,159$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.55 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 825.81$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 51c | 658.52$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.33 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 43c | 647.09$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 47c | 612.63$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.47 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 58c | 500.47$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.69 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 421.04$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.57 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 66c | 388.17$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.82 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 365.07$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.32 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 43c | 264.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 30c | 230.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 28c | 220.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 52c | 192.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 165.8$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 65c | 159.85$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 50c | 130.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…6ed2backed No | 27c | 116.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 47c | 111$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 102.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 101.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 24c | 96.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 96.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 60c | 89.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 49c | 89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 22c | 83.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 66c | 77.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5376…e781backed No | 27c | 74.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 71.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 66.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 63c | 64.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 61.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 58c | 60.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 49c | 60.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 57.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 28c | 56.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0ab0backed Yes | 70c | 53.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 70c | 50.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 44.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 41.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 39.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 43c | 38.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 37.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 76c | 34.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 70c | 32.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 77c | 32.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…970abacked Yes | 63c | 31.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 33c | 31.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 35c | 31.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…62b5backed Yes | 74c | 29.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 62c | 28.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…f3cebacked No | 53c | 27.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 48c | 24.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 24.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 47c | 24.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4828backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.