Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-20.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2b0ecf8294504f8737176260e6367bbc9b02b4656f1e86341bf53cff4a0c47b

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Duke Blue Devilsof Duke Blue Devils, Syracuse Orange
Resolved: Feb 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $87,550
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $91,043

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,550 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x777d…5143backed Duke Blue Devils	52c	64,456$33,468 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30,988.53	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Syracuse Orange	48c	21,502$10,321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,320.96	302	49.3%149 W · 153 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Syracuse Orange	48c	18,888$9,066 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,066.24	100	45%45 W · 55 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Syracuse Orange	48c	14,532$7,035 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,034.56	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Syracuse Orange	56c	3,617$2,016 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,015.55	1,436	47.5%682 W · 754 L	-18.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Syracuse Orange	48c	3,333$1,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,599.84	277	55.2%153 W · 124 L	+19.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Duke Blue Devils	43c	2,563$1,114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,449.4	2,254	42.2%951 W · 1,303 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Syracuse Orange	49c	2,410$1,170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,170.44	2,896	50%1,448 W · 1,448 L	+71.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Syracuse Orange	51c	2,040$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040.4	134	53%71 W · 63 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Duke Blue Devils	51c	1,954$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$954.24	220	43.2%95 W · 125 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Syracuse Orange	49c	1,425$695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$694.59	841	47.4%399 W · 442 L	-13.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed Duke Blue Devils	51c	1,001$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490.61	70	57.1%40 W · 30 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Syracuse Orange	51c	630.77$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.57	159	47.2%75 W · 84 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd5…09c2backed Duke Blue Devils	50c	599.86$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$299.93	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x004e…c650backed Syracuse Orange	57c	586.12$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.96	88	45.5%40 W · 48 L	-6.9wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Syracuse Orange	51c	539.12$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.95	239	41.4%99 W · 140 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Syracuse Orange	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	161	47.2%76 W · 85 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5781…bbfbbacked Syracuse Orange	49c	472.19$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.38	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Syracuse Orange	52c	459.86$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.55	138	42.8%59 W · 79 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Syracuse Orange	56c	445$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.2	1,155	50.4%582 W · 573 L	-34.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb98e…8823backed Syracuse Orange	56c	350$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	144	47.2%68 W · 76 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Syracuse Orange	56c	313.46$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.54	307	46.3%142 W · 165 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Duke Blue Devils	50c	299.98$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.99	1,260	43.3%545 W · 715 L	+34.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Syracuse Orange	46c	258.23$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.32	852	48.8%416 W · 436 L	+4.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Duke Blue Devils	45c	216.82$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.14	3,905	58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L	+165.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Syracuse Orange	47c	185.21$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.05	1,296	45.1%584 W · 712 L	-23.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Syracuse Orange	48c	147.62$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.86	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c1a…bf0abacked Syracuse Orange	49c	140$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.6	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Duke Blue Devils	50c	135.37$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.2	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x83ea…c2efbacked Syracuse Orange	52c	134.62$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	230	54.3%125 W · 105 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee76…e67abacked Syracuse Orange	51c	107.45$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	113	62.8%71 W · 42 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	65cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d20…9871backed Syracuse Orange	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Duke Blue Devils	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	172	41.3%71 W · 101 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed Syracuse Orange	54c	88.63$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.86	40	45%18 W · 22 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Syracuse Orange	40c	82.63$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	716	55.3%396 W · 320 L	+26.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78c3…5110backed Duke Blue Devils	74c	81.08$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.08	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd286…4c1bbacked Duke Blue Devils	47c	65.07$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.57	135	61.5%83 W · 52 L	+13.7wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb59c…e944backed Syracuse Orange	49c	51$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-4.3wins	-0.33per pick	56cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5127…f137backed Syracuse Orange	52c	48.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	-6.0wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Duke Blue Devils	48c	46.77$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.32	445	49.4%220 W · 225 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba7e…ae58backed Syracuse Orange	52c	46.77$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Syracuse Orange	55c	42.44$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.24	932	47.3%441 W · 491 L	-22.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Syracuse Orange	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	627	53%332 W · 295 L	+13.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ad…bda1backed Duke Blue Devils	53c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.8	17	76.5%13 W · 4 L	+3.4wins	+0.20per pick	57cpaid	+52.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Syracuse Orange	53c	39$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.76	202	48%97 W · 105 L	-9.8wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71d6…a929backed Duke Blue Devils	52c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.12	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0bb…049fbacked Syracuse Orange	44c	36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.72	57	52.6%30 W · 27 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Syracuse Orange	53c	34.07$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	67	47.8%32 W · 35 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Syracuse Orange	49c	32.25$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	77	48.1%37 W · 40 L	-6.5wins	-0.08per pick	57cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc22a…a35cbacked Syracuse Orange	55c	30.7$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Duke Blue Devils	51c	30.65$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.95	216	51.4%111 W · 105 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Syracuse Orange	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	174	46.6%81 W · 93 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bcf…06b3backed Syracuse Orange	52c	26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08cf…f0ccbacked Duke Blue Devils	51c	24.56$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.04	43	60.5%26 W · 17 L	+4.3wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Duke Blue Devils	49c	23.07$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.82	1,152	48.9%563 W · 589 L	+3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x383d…87eabacked Syracuse Orange	54c	21.3$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc307…bf36backed Syracuse Orange	50c	21.04$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+3.3wins	+0.17per pick	48cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-20.5)this page
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-19.5)Duke Blue Devils won
Syracuse Orange vs. Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils won
Syracuse Orange vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5Over won
Syracuse Orange vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 142.5Over won
Syracuse Orange vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 143.5Over won
Syracuse Orange vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 145.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-20.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event