Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-19.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5155cff4413d3c4ea0b2edf1e4278d2f5c24a62bbfbf2812a6dddd35745974bd

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Duke Blue Devilsof Duke Blue Devils, Syracuse Orange
Resolved: Feb 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $45,451
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $47,248

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,451 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaca2…b9a1backed Syracuse Orange	49c	25,081$12,388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,388.01	417	52.5%219 W · 198 L	+13.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Duke Blue Devils	50c	13,960$6,932 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,028.16	244	51.2%125 W · 119 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Duke Blue Devils	50c	5,842$2,909 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,932.97	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Duke Blue Devils	52c	5,499$2,860 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,639.57	906	45.4%411 W · 495 L	+9.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Duke Blue Devils	52c	5,100$2,643 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,457.32	1,436	47.5%682 W · 754 L	-18.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Syracuse Orange	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	278	51.1%142 W · 136 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Syracuse Orange	50c	1,631$820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$819.65	2,896	50%1,448 W · 1,448 L	+71.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa0…d504backed Syracuse Orange	52c	1,540$801 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800.79	65	55.4%36 W · 29 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Syracuse Orange	46c	1,427$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$655.42	746	49.2%367 W · 379 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Syracuse Orange	50c	991.14$496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.57	143	25.9%37 W · 106 L	-8.7wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x009b…e769backed Duke Blue Devils	52c	922.32$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$442.32	73	60.3%44 W · 29 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Syracuse Orange	47c	799.98$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.99	557	49.2%274 W · 283 L	-7.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Syracuse Orange	49c	473$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.73	307	46.3%142 W · 165 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Duke Blue Devils	48c	422$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.44	195	54.9%107 W · 88 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Duke Blue Devils	48c	416.67$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.67	1,231	47%578 W · 653 L	-17.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Duke Blue Devils	51c	395.51$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.71	267	49.1%131 W · 136 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ec…2892backed Syracuse Orange	48c	393.58$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.31	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	41cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Duke Blue Devils	52c	373.8$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.86	922	46%424 W · 498 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Duke Blue Devils	49c	305.97$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.04	112	44.6%50 W · 62 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Duke Blue Devils	54c	250$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115	315	37.8%119 W · 196 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Duke Blue Devils	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	229	54.1%124 W · 105 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Duke Blue Devils	48c	208$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.16	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Syracuse Orange	50c	201.15$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.89	852	48.8%416 W · 436 L	+4.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Duke Blue Devils	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	172	41.3%71 W · 101 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Syracuse Orange	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	306	49%150 W · 156 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x240d…a928backed Syracuse Orange	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-5.3wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Duke Blue Devils	53c	160$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.08	635	51.5%327 W · 308 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Duke Blue Devils	52c	149.98$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.99	294	42.9%126 W · 168 L	-11.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Duke Blue Devils	53c	144.57$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.95	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ea…c2efbacked Duke Blue Devils	53c	132.67$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.67	230	54.3%125 W · 105 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f9…8d2dbacked Duke Blue Devils	54c	122.76$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.42	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Syracuse Orange	44c	108$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.52	270	48.1%130 W · 140 L	+12.8wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Syracuse Orange	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	118	44.1%52 W · 66 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Duke Blue Devils	56c	95.3$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.13	159	47.2%75 W · 84 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed Duke Blue Devils	50c	91.14$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.78	219	55.3%121 W · 98 L	+13.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Syracuse Orange	47c	85.79$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.33	1,152	48.9%563 W · 589 L	+3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Duke Blue Devils	52c	76.92$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	326	52.8%172 W · 154 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ce1…b62cbacked Duke Blue Devils	53c	75.47$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.47	79	55.7%44 W · 35 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Syracuse Orange	48c	73$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.04	505	48.9%247 W · 258 L	+13.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5741…fb99backed Syracuse Orange	50c	66$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc869…b693backed Duke Blue Devils	80c	62.66$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.66	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.12per pick	78cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Syracuse Orange	48c	60.54$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.06	1,296	45.1%584 W · 712 L	-23.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Syracuse Orange	51c	60.32$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.72	202	48%97 W · 105 L	-9.8wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Duke Blue Devils	49c	59.98$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.59	165	51.5%85 W · 80 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Duke Blue Devils	53c	56.79$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.79	211	52.1%110 W · 101 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Duke Blue Devils	52c	48.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.08	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Duke Blue Devils	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	99	45.5%45 W · 54 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1aa…071abacked Syracuse Orange	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	49%25 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71d6…a929backed Duke Blue Devils	48c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.23	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb48d…9f73backed Duke Blue Devils	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2f6…cbf3backed Syracuse Orange	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Duke Blue Devils	54c	36.5$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.79	138	42.8%59 W · 79 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3778…8604backed Syracuse Orange	52c	33.15$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.24	55	50.9%28 W · 27 L	-6.6wins	-0.12per pick	63cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9b3a…df40backed Syracuse Orange	45c	27.93$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.57	59	39%23 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa131…7269backed Duke Blue Devils	48c	22$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.44	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Duke Blue Devils	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	349	52.1%182 W · 167 L	+9.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Duke Blue Devils	54c	18.88$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.61	216	51.4%111 W · 105 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f4…4effbacked Duke Blue Devils	55c	18.4$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.28	77	51.9%40 W · 37 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	58cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedc6…05dfbacked Duke Blue Devils	67c	15.54$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.15	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-19.5)this page
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-20.5)Duke Blue Devils won
Syracuse Orange vs. Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils won
Syracuse Orange vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5Over won
Syracuse Orange vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 142.5Over won
Syracuse Orange vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 143.5Over won
Syracuse Orange vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 145.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-19.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event