TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,332
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,621

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,332 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes6c2,493$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.6147442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes4c1,944$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8186420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes6c1,332$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.618,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes8c921.21$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2957545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8506…5a06backed Yes11c600.11$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.913756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c517.72$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes22c493.23$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.176,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d75…f807backed Yes7c416.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes6c392.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5964021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes6c388.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8436819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes8c328.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3133535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes47c262.54$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1631341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe39e…23a5backed Yes4c230$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.123917.9%7 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c207.78$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.974,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c186.19$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.097,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3182…4ff7backed No76c185.09$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4214168.1%96 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes27c169.37$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.081,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes20c166.5$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.591,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No76c163.29$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.829558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.41,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26ef…9808backed No78c143.38$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.539277.2%71 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes11c137$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.071,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa74f…25c0backed No74c130.94$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.942458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc28a…e150backed Yes34c122$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes18c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.61,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c83…de2dbacked Yes30c112$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No76c110.43$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.953,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No76c110$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9524370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x105c…1011backed Yes17c109.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6811220.5%23 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes33c108$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.921,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac90…b414backed Yes31c101$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9955…6998backed Yes23c100.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.534219%8 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No77c100.29$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.862,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.51,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes13c99.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.261,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes22c91.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.793,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed Yes22c81.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.191,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed Yes26c76.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031564.8%204 W · 111 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1927…9649backed Yes27c73.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203040%12 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No73c69.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.691,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes29c69.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.89046.7%42 W · 48 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc250…5eafbacked Yes28c68.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196325.4%16 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed No51c68.62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5232444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes19c66.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7811515.7%18 W · 97 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes19c65.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No76c64.52$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4862555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes25c63.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.783,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3b…b989backed Yes23c60.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.865950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked No79c59.94$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5524542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cad…e203backed No67c56$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.464035%14 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x766e…75f6backed Yes18c55.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0416518.2%30 W · 135 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0278…27c6backed No70c55$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6515…05c9backed No66c52$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36f2…a7dbbacked No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+71.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x060c…9352backed Yes36c48.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.79133%30 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes30c47.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1913930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b2d…37abbacked No75c47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc18e…44e3backed Yes24c44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.562740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-31.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce9a…8ea6backed No46c43.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4418878.2%147 W · 41 L+19.4wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No69c42.72$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0502…62bbbacked Yes24c41.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.16966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6de1…cd03backed No62c39.17$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes26c38.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.096825%17 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed No73c38.46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5316366.3%108 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed No59c37.08$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.115339.9%61 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed No73c33.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0326253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No77c32.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.481,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb279…a17ebacked No67c32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+221.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No50c27.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.724149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No67c25.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4790734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcec2…b46cbacked No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2e6…c602backed Yes50c24.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.413452.9%18 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No50c24.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.352,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…622abacked No66c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa41a…087fbacked No69c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.133100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ddd…05d0backed No70c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffb…e845backed No70c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No70c21.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4532669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb534…cac3backed No75c20.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1066141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6c…ee14backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.65058%29 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c82…9728backed No80c19.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46100%6 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd79…f926backed No69c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.