Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe43405b1461e35f92bf316a1dfeaba65c64b733056f41675db4a489d387a7863
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 2c | 3,965$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd13f…4906backed No | 2c | 1,800$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 2c | 806.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 49c | 658.94$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.19 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 66c | 581.8$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.82 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 9c | 555.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 502.2$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 12c | 501.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 80c | 386.56$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed No | 17c | 336.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes | 37c | 303.44$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.82 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 80c | 235.2$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 28c | 206.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 196.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 190.76$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 168.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 163.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.63 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3afe…075dbacked No | 7c | 157.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 157.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2151…6e16backed No | 42c | 146$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 144.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…19a7backed No | 19c | 140.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed No | 41c | 140$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 130$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 62c | 128.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed No | 12c | 118.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 9c | 115$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 111.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 49c | 108$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 45c | 104.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 103.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 26c | 103.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 37c | 100.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 66c | 95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 36c | 94.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 46c | 92.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 92.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 59c | 90.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 75c | 90.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 15c | 87.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 38c | 84.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 46c | 83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes | 36c | 82.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 38c | 79.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 75.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed No | 29c | 74.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 16c | 72.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 45c | 69.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 70c | 69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 57c | 66.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 34c | 65.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 32c | 65.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 60.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f8…b82fbacked Yes | 58c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 55c | 54.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 37c | 54.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 38c | 53.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…ec3abacked No | 67c | 51.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 39c | 50.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…58ddbacked Yes | 56c | 50.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…c68dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…dd94backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c69…9867backed Yes | 64c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 47.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 68c | 46.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 35c | 44.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 31c | 41.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7de0…2a56backed Yes | 34c | 41.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 72c | 39.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…0366backed Yes | 36c | 38.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 30c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3737…226abacked Yes | 79c | 36.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…d83ebacked No | 71c | 35.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a85…c9afbacked Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…ee24backed Yes | 31c | 34.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked Yes | 33c | 32.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed Yes | 41c | 31.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…0e08backed Yes | 56c | 28.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 27.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 57c | 25.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…3039backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 69c | 24.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 58c | 24.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…f897backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…6b18backed Yes | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…0788backed Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 17.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 72c | 17.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.