NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa305e962288595236214df1313ae2252a822b03bb007788901b541640264f29b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe818…4bb3backed Under | 48c | 8,562$4,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,424.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 5,567$2,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,891.7 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 1,269$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.88 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 52c | 1,230$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.58 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 1,180$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.88 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 761$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.5 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 46c | 518$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.93 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 32c | 240$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 206$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 10c | 205.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 56c | 101.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 39c | 91.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 43c | 54.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fc…51c6backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 36c | 47.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 52c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 34c | 32.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eda…1847backed Under | 52c | 31.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 66c | 30.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Over | 62c | 21.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Over | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…2635backed Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…276fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5this page
- Kings vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.