NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f4a7767bc47311b9bf3cadce7f014d8afc72e0cc6fb0dc621f3d3a71cac0242
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Kings | 56c | 13,306$7,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,467.81 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 44c | 6,775$2,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,791.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Kings | 45c | 5,600$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.98 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 4,008$1,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.24 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Timberwolves | 55c | 2,727$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.27 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 44c | 2,227$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.46 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Timberwolves | 47c | 1,727$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.25 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Timberwolves | 55c | 1,439$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.55 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves | 55c | 1,088$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.06 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Kings | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 45c | 766$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.61 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Timberwolves | 53c | 564.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.88 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Kings | 46c | 512.58$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.66 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Kings | 55c | 454.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Timberwolves | 12c | 445.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.78 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Kings | 10c | 380.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 7cpaid | +190.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Timberwolves | 11c | 280$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.2 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Timberwolves | 46c | 273.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.59 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 261.86$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.84 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Kings | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Timberwolves | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a57…1d29backed Kings | 45c | 188.89$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Kings | 52c | 134.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Kings | 53c | 133$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kings | 54c | 129.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Timberwolves | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Timberwolves | 48c | 89.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Kings | 29c | 76.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kings | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 51c | 67.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Timberwolves | 52c | 55.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…27d7backed Kings | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Timberwolves | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Kings | 45c | 49.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…d962backed Timberwolves | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb262…0ce2backed Timberwolves | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kings | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Timberwolves | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…58b0backed Kings | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)this page
- Kings vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.