NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d91737118fb6588bcedc9a27dd825835b122eb90a48412f831570aba2c4dcb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Under | 43c | 72,000$30,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,040 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 57c | 70,000$39,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,900 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…f514backed Under | 45c | 8,222$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,522.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 6,654$3,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,393.44 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 54c | 6,560$3,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,542.23 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 4,404$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,401.62 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1d…dacfbacked Under | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…c98abacked Under | 44c | 2,514$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.64 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 57c | 2,500$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 49c | 2,154$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.54 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c0…93fdbacked Under | 44c | 1,830$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.8 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Over | 56c | 1,071$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 561$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.27 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Under | 45c | 275$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.25 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 48c | 210.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.33 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fd…b25bbacked Under | 45c | 195.6$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 52c | 149.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc69…78b3backed Over | 58c | 115.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…7d8dbacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 48c | 98.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…fe30backed Under | 49c | 93.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 45c | 93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a17…282bbacked Under | 45c | 64.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Under | 48c | 51.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Under | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 43c | 44.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…7a7abacked Over | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8d…a20dbacked Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 20.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5this page
- Kings vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.