NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72f53865e4b56ba71aea0d2e62fc62076f009e4695423ff136f8365b0e61f317
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,021,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,022,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,021,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2e7…be51backed Kings | 52c | 714,054$372,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372,800 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Timberwolves | 48c | 431,001$206,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224,369.3 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Timberwolves | 47c | 111,506$52,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,575.24 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Timberwolves | 47c | 80,000$37,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,099.99 | 148 | 56.1%83 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 48c | 61,349$29,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,124.51 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves | 48c | 22,182$10,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,473.62 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Timberwolves | 47c | 18,888$8,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,010.64 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 13,857$6,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,091.58 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Kings | 50c | 12,384$6,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,226.23 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 11,176$5,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,476.47 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Kings | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,899.98 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…6177backed Timberwolves | 51c | 9,804$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,803.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 58c | 5,232$3,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,009.36 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…f58ebacked Timberwolves | 51c | 2,745$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Timberwolves | 50c | 2,516$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.68 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Kings | 49c | 2,182$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.37 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Kings | 47c | 1,943$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.4 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Timberwolves | 50c | 1,548$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Timberwolves | 48c | 1,504$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.92 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…822cbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 213 | 55.9%119 W · 94 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 48c | 1,197$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.06 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 1,167$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.41 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 1,145$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.4 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Kings | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Kings | 53c | 929.27$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.51 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Timberwolves | 49c | 700$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Timberwolves | 41c | 533.57$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.98 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Kings | 62c | 521.52$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.72 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…f286backed Timberwolves | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x623c…dde0backed Timberwolves | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Timberwolves | 48c | 420.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.83 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Timberwolves | 57c | 370$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.1 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Timberwolves | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 344$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Timberwolves | 48c | 300$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Timberwolves | 54c | 273.64$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.31 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked Timberwolves | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.18 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 53c | 221.45$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…06c2backed Timberwolves | 48c | 220$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Kings | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 473 | 59.2%280 W · 193 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Kings | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 45c | 185.45$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 140.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Timberwolves | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Kings | 55c | 62.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Timberwolves | 47c | 50.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Timberwolves | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…7d8dbacked Kings | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Kings | 42c | 47.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Kings | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Timberwolves | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Timberwolves | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0e…b74abacked Timberwolves | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Kings | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae6…f672backed Kings | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Kings | 48c | 37.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db9…846cbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 37.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Kings | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 183 | 47.5%87 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Timberwolves | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…6875backed Timberwolves | 59c | 33.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Timberwolves | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Timberwolves | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Timberwolves | 48c | 30.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…37d1backed Kings | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a65…0850backed Timberwolves | 47c | 26.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…bd4bbacked Kings | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Timberwolves | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 20.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…bdddbacked Kings | 51c | 19.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Timberwolves | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)this page
- Kings vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.