NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffcf507550745f44651180b16af51c7daef7e86d3eff4fcd88871c900301e141
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Kings | 51c | 57,584$29,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,649.29 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Kings | 52c | 49,954$25,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,791.16 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Timberwolves | 48c | 35,000$16,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,200 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Timberwolves | 48c | 12,783$6,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,647.08 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Timberwolves | 50c | 11,091$5,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,545.35 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x763a…2e91backed Timberwolves | 49c | 10,072$4,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,136.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Timberwolves | 48c | 9,124$4,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,744.52 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb611…2b5dbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 6,122$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,122.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Kings | 61c | 5,613$3,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,423.82 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Timberwolves | 47c | 5,300$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800.09 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 5,298$2,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,895.5 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf4…b553backed Timberwolves | 49c | 4,763$2,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…f456backed Timberwolves | 49c | 2,276$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…5862backed Timberwolves | 47c | 2,096$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.74 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves | 49c | 1,846$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.28 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Timberwolves | 47c | 1,638$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.3 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 46c | 1,413$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 1,188$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.37 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Timberwolves | 50c | 1,166$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Timberwolves | 48c | 1,015$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.12 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Kings | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Timberwolves | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafdc…c2a2backed Timberwolves | 48c | 871.66$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.66 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 859$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.68 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Timberwolves | 48c | 643.33$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.55 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Kings | 52c | 623.62$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.88 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Kings | 54c | 600$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 51c | 529.47$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.12 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Kings | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed Kings | 48c | 461.54$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.54 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Timberwolves | 48c | 460$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.4 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 47c | 344.13$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.51 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Kings | 49c | 270.51$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.33 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…f676backed Kings | 58c | 234.48$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Timberwolves | 49c | 221$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.43 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Kings | 50c | 213$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Timberwolves | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kings | 50c | 205$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Kings | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Timberwolves | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Kings | 58c | 200$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Kings | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Timberwolves | 48c | 130.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Timberwolves | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Kings | 50c | 100.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Timberwolves | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 274 | 35.4%97 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Kings | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Timberwolves | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Timberwolves | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Timberwolves | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Timberwolves | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Timberwolves | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Timberwolves | 42c | 88.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Timberwolves | 49c | 79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0356…5273backed Kings | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Timberwolves | 47c | 50.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Kings | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed8d…a20dbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 47.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Timberwolves | 69c | 38.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Kings | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Kings | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 32.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29be…d358backed Timberwolves | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…58b0backed Timberwolves | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Kings | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…f767backed Kings | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bef…b7c2backed Kings | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)this page
- Kings vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.