NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc83869a97d320c023d970c24634a6db332f7c66208e3aad866419d065619026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x869b…c625backed Over | 52c | 100,000$52,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,999.99 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 48c | 60,000$28,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,200.31 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,400 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 52c | 12,201$6,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,322.69 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 10,495$5,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,457.65 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1d…dacfbacked Under | 48c | 7,501$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,900.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…1587backed Under | 52c | 7,402$3,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,547.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under | 48c | 5,813$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,022.96 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…8eeabacked Under | 48c | 2,539$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Over | 42c | 1,700$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 48c | 1,619$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.88 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 47c | 1,500$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 1,413$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under | 47c | 999.99$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…f514backed Under | 48c | 806.25$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 44c | 499.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 53c | 485$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.05 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 48c | 226.77$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 52c | 197.57$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c2…895fbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Over | 39c | 166.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd29b…b518backed Over | 58c | 106.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 55c | 77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5this page
- Kings vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
- Kings vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.