Ligue 1 · resolved market
Stade Brestois 29 vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3301e4d9d3552392d2a3ae76d4e6f57b61adfe36b2cf4de949309f0758fbd1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 9,001$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.36 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 418.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 26c | 299.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 76c | 162.96$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Over | 12c | 137.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Over | 25c | 111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Over | 25c | 99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Over | 25c | 95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Over | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Over | 25c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…6545backed Over | 26c | 43.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Under | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 74c | 33.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Under | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Under | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Under | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Under | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Under | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Under | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Under | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Under | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Under | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Under | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…2a6fbacked Under | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Under | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Under | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Under | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Under | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Under | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…c5cdbacked Under | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…865abacked Under | 76c | 14.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1c…bdbabacked Under | 76c | 13.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stade Brestois 29 vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Stade Brestois 29 (-1.5)Stade Brestois 29 won
- Stade Brestois 29 vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Stade Brestois 29 vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5Over won
- Stade Brestois 29 vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5Under won
- Stade Brestois 29 vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.