TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PuckChampof FTS, PuckChamp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,683
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,861

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,683 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa4fd…748bbacked FTS35c12,000$4,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,198.911729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked PuckChamp66c10,444$6,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,591.071,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f04…1fb0backed FTS36c5,664$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,053.7910458.7%61 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked FTS38c5,663$2,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,128.131,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked FTS32c4,009$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.0295342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6876…8dc9backed PuckChamp64c3,914$2,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.881181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick71cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3f…5e0dbacked PuckChamp69c3,501$2,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.887379.5%58 W · 15 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+19.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed PuckChamp61c3,279$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.675149%25 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b13…0263backed PuckChamp74c2,700$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.995164.7%33 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed PuckChamp65c2,238$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.2819251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed FTS1c2,153$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed PuckChamp71c2,128$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.5748057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked FTS30c2,040$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.2379859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked FTS32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64069835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a4a…3da9backed PuckChamp69c1,584$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.191888.9%16 W · 2 L+4.7wins+0.26per pick63cpaid+46.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked PuckChamp63c1,582$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.8811656%65 W · 51 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed FTS11c1,540$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.443738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed3…186cbacked PuckChamp69c1,502$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.487169%49 W · 22 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+29.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe75d…a961backed FTS38c1,490$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf247…d8cabacked PuckChamp60c1,342$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.165352.8%28 W · 25 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb14…49b2backed FTS33c1,241$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.396043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PuckChamp63c1,189$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.9479959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FTS39c1,141$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.7393546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21a3…3e5cbacked PuckChamp70c1,065$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.463863.2%24 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07ae…69e9backed FTS39c986.88$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked FTS3c756.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.789741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x652b…e9c9backed FTS31c738.74$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.4240%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x30a6…1b30backed PuckChamp72c719.46$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27cc…00b6backed PuckChamp61c700.95$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.521070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FTS24c649.95$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.0789238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6ee…c059backed FTS15c599.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed FTS28c598.63$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.1342639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked FTS20c589.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11841242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed FTS28c536.75$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2935737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78f4…38eebacked FTS27c532$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed FTS26c521.79$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4326147.9%125 W · 136 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa20d…6ba4backed FTS40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6714751%75 W · 72 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed FTS38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked PuckChamp80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10092056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed FTS39c448.7$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.999736.1%35 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed FTS24c442.02$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2512646%58 W · 68 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed FTS30c418$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12710743.9%47 W · 60 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x749f…6be1backed FTS40c402.55$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.368551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a3d…4d49backed FTS26c392.21$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.662548%12 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c3…0566backed FTS27c368.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008150.6%41 W · 40 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e3b…9f07backed PuckChamp64c343.57$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.165100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+133.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2ab…3bb3backed FTS31c327.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-44.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked PuckChamp70c323.08$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2756945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf48f…e9b9backed PuckChamp52c311.25$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.45152.9%27 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee4…a02abacked PuckChamp61c282.23$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2213658.1%79 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked FTS8c265.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4753844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed PuckChamp63c249.98$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4925639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b8…149bbacked PuckChamp70c244.16$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4210245.1%46 W · 56 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed FTS29c230.39$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3331835.8%114 W · 204 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked PuckChamp73c227.18$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.036660.6%40 W · 26 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67c5…2642backed PuckChamp67c225.41$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FTS25c222.51$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4389938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked PuckChamp70c220.31$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6358746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5266…22acbacked PuckChamp78c206.76$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.924156.1%23 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f7c…8b29backed PuckChamp67c203.96$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.914861.5%91 W · 57 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed FTS24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4842053.6%225 W · 195 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0547…2ad3backed PuckChamp69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624868.8%33 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5657…42a6backed FTS36c199.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5008…9466backed FTS26c183.34$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.993030%9 W · 21 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-37.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4f87…f04ebacked FTS11c182.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0511250.9%57 W · 55 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x55c6…0d49backed PuckChamp60c180$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6c…0c16backed FTS28c178.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019135.6%68 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed FTS18c178.47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4841632.7%136 W · 280 L-37.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked FTS26c177$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0228145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed PuckChamp59c169.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.937248.6%35 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf7…8c87backed FTS30c169.31$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.69850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked PuckChamp70c166.52$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.561,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked FTS37c165.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6642146.6%196 W · 225 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked PuckChamp63c161.9$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.99543.2%41 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0396…86babacked PuckChamp66c158.34$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.345451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a00…59e2backed PuckChamp70c156.07$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.821788.2%15 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+45.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x08ee…ffe2backed FTS43c150.9$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.923951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…7f73backed FTS38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5726154.8%143 W · 118 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f83…086fbacked FTS42c148.87$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.941553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2035…dc1cbacked PuckChamp70c144.75$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.033375.8%25 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed FTS37c142.82$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.223237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed FTS26c142.31$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-30.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked FTS31c140$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.413238.6%51 W · 81 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c1…3174backed FTS25c140$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-35.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe530…ed7bbacked FTS37c133.39$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.062755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc916…6371backed FTS22c131.21$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.655850%29 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2d…54cfbacked PuckChamp65c130.72$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.75425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dcb…50fcbacked FTS30c130$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.42948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked PuckChamp70c118.9$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.944049.3%217 W · 223 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed PuckChamp72c118.81$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8155561.8%343 W · 212 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3231…6e75backed PuckChamp71c116.98$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.557657.9%44 W · 32 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FTS30c116.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3569132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2906…555abacked PuckChamp78c115.89$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.893070%21 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a9…e618backed FTS26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303531.4%11 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-42.8%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x277b…31fabacked FTS20c111$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.892646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6204…caa8backed PuckChamp71c110.3$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.32250%11 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed FTS29c100.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6417537.1%65 W · 110 L-13.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf186…03a9backed FTS33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad8a…a98abacked PuckChamp68c97.72$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.299757.7%56 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2591…b7c1backed FTS28c96.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.111244.6%50 W · 62 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.