TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PuckChampof FTS, PuckChamp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,691
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$181,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,691 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed PuckChamp48c28,305$13,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,650.4793546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked FTS37c14,339$5,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,346.0689741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed FTS43c5,857$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,514.9851049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked FTS40c5,693$2,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,277.091,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed PuckChamp61c5,039$3,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,952.7247650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb4…74c5backed FTS57c3,991$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,278.751145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5266…22acbacked FTS49c2,883$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414.14156.1%23 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed FTS56c2,781$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.7842639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed PuckChamp60c2,716$1,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.5824255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked FTS39c2,414$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.8779859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78f4…38eebacked PuckChamp52c2,338$1,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.42650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f04…1fb0backed PuckChamp63c2,297$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.0910458.7%61 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb14…49b2backed FTS46c2,179$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.196043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27cc…00b6backed PuckChamp60c1,790$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.971070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed FTS40c1,727$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.997733.8%26 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-35.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf072…d897backed FTS40c1,710$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.7512246.7%57 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed PuckChamp57c1,694$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.2719251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked PuckChamp60c1,667$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.6711656%65 W · 51 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc3f…5e0dbacked PuckChamp63c1,344$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.237379.5%58 W · 15 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+19.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0547…2ad3backed PuckChamp58c1,322$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.084868.8%33 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x63bc…92c5backed PuckChamp65c1,300$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.9211045.5%50 W · 60 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d9…b188backed FTS50c1,288$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.49855.1%54 W · 44 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked FTS62c1,140$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.1254058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72c8…a74cbacked PuckChamp55c1,100$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49524942.6%106 W · 143 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FTS37c1,044$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.5589238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x455e…f7f9backed FTS77c866.66$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.231758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc186…e96ebacked PuckChamp64c812.02$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.43951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked FTS46c809.92$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.5433845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed PuckChamp75c787.58$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.4755561.8%343 W · 212 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21a3…3e5cbacked PuckChamp63c757.72$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.643863.2%24 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f83…086fbacked FTS55c749.94$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.981553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0d6…6bf4backed FTS36c747.27$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26613553.3%72 W · 63 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d57…5999backed FTS35c735.62$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.81425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-50.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed FTS35c713$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7438142%160 W · 221 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a11…9968backed FTS72c703.63$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c81…5518backed FTS70c700$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4905437%20 W · 34 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ec1…9a95backed FTS56c675.99$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.775328.3%15 W · 38 L-9.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1f1c…6383backed PuckChamp45c645.69$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.38540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked FTS45c634.04$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.7358746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75d…a961backed PuckChamp43c627.58$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6c…0c16backed FTS50c589.37$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.4819135.6%68 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked FTS38c565$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.72748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+29.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked PuckChamp64c563.2$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.4795342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked FTS34c519.6$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.110551.4%54 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc83…08f4backed FTS63c515.86$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.225461.1%33 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+17.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec96…f5d7backed FTS40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20037253%197 W · 175 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed FTS28c499.99$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13943738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PuckChamp65c491.47$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.0179959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed PuckChamp71c490.26$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.3433265.4%217 W · 115 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed FTS21c490$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9225639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde0f…a4e7backed FTS44c456.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.991675%12 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec3…babcbacked FTS48c454.31$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.043246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x749f…6be1backed PuckChamp66c447$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.868551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked FTS31c438$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.7841242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed FTS64c436.51$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.0617249.4%85 W · 87 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed FTS48c428.22$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2237745.9%173 W · 204 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FTS42c425.23$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.921,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…b615backed PuckChamp60c418.66$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.652152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x034d…a29ebacked PuckChamp63c395.92$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.921764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed PuckChamp71c361.97$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9719458.8%114 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0a8…d554backed FTS34c350$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf48f…e9b9backed PuckChamp51c340.13$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.665152.9%27 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed FTS71c332.74$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.256851.5%35 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec6…db1ebacked FTS50c332.19$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16710557.1%60 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FTS36c327.75$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5689938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed FTS57c321.82$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.133132.3%10 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed PuckChamp20c320.2$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.1669132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed FTS71c320.13$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.2419460.3%117 W · 77 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed FTS43c317.89$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.693256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked FTS27c308.89$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.414641.8%61 W · 85 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked PuckChamp65c303.08$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5453844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed FTS39c298.65$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9891553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked FTS33c277.9$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.679543.2%41 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c3b…2921backed FTS31c274.45$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.891625%4 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-52.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b95…07e5backed FTS37c273.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002722.2%6 W · 21 L-7.3wins-0.27per pick49cpaid-62.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x8f15…7691backed FTS43c261$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.692040%8 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked FTS29c260.75$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.951,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked PuckChamp68c254.66$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.743764.9%24 W · 13 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked PuckChamp66c252.45$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9277458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed PuckChamp60c244.9$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.961241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1031…2febbacked FTS36c244.44$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x344d…fd5bbacked FTS41c243.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.951233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed FTS40c231.13$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.456822.1%15 W · 53 L-15.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-66%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x549b…28c2backed PuckChamp32c228$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.15580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+49.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked PuckChamp71c220.14$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8928145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6204…caa8backed FTS43c216.07$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932250%11 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked FTS50c210.22$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.081,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed FTS46c206.43$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2871342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1cf…9ab4backed PuckChamp63c206.35$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.357263.9%46 W · 26 L+9.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+18.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed FTS74c202.63$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9526550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfeca…8c27backed FTS40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b27…0635backed PuckChamp58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked PuckChamp42c194.6$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.196245.2%28 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc800…4117backed FTS70c193.33$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.339042.2%38 W · 52 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked FTS41c193.04$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.153138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad8a…a98abacked FTS45c189.44$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.689757.7%56 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FTS43c175.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.041,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked FTS41c173.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3442146.6%196 W · 225 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3231…6e75backed FTS44c170.93$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.637657.9%44 W · 32 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72ab…30fcbacked FTS70c170$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1191764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.