Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3c588d01f43b585c27885ece6c746c89cc70c982ef1d3e80700b1dba8a7ed38

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: PuckChampof FTS, PuckChamp
Resolved: Aug 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $29,057
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $31,821

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,057 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbb14…49b2backed FTS	37c	2,444$915 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$914.75	60	43.3%26 W · 34 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FTS	5c	1,023$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.46	691	32.6%225 W · 466 L	-26.8wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb904…3ef8backed PuckChamp	56c	880$489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$391.21	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x034d…a29ebacked FTS	46c	819.24$379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.04	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8370…cd4fbacked FTS	14c	728.53$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0944…358fbacked FTS	13c	562.71$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.42	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x640d…bba7backed FTS	18c	554$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	75%15 W · 5 L	+3.2wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1614…0bedbacked PuckChamp	58c	529.56$309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.53	78	39.7%31 W · 47 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked FTS	46c	430$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.55	669	47.1%315 W · 354 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed FTS	13c	419$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.47	107	43.9%47 W · 60 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed PuckChamp	62c	418.47$259 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.02	340	51.5%175 W · 165 L	+11.2wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked PuckChamp	60c	400$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160	121	48.8%59 W · 62 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed FTS	9c	346.65$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.05	381	42%160 W · 221 L	-15.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed FTS	40c	342.75$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.1	292	43.2%126 W · 166 L	-14.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e6f…3be7backed FTS	43c	340.71$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.95	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed PuckChamp	59c	337.28$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.28	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	61cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked FTS	41c	336$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.76	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked FTS	12c	310.75$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.29	146	55.5%81 W · 65 L	+8.1wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed PuckChamp	64c	310.3$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.18	225	62.2%140 W · 85 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked FTS	41c	300$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	281	45.6%128 W · 153 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91b9…889fbacked PuckChamp	66c	289.34$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.34	91	45.1%41 W · 50 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f15…7691backed FTS	44c	288$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.72	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d8b…a00dbacked FTS	5c	255.55$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	46	0%0 W · 46 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed PuckChamp	62c	238.82$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.89	414	55.6%230 W · 184 L	+41.4wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked FTS	42c	233.33$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	99	42.4%42 W · 57 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc96…2791backed FTS	7c	228.69$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	68	48.5%33 W · 35 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FTS	11c	212.98$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.3	892	38.1%340 W · 552 L	-42.7wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed FTS	23c	207.48$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.28	1,260	49.7%626 W · 634 L	+21.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked PuckChamp	62c	172.74$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.64	95	43.2%41 W · 54 L	-6.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2806…6de8backed PuckChamp	61c	161.57$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.57	113	44.2%50 W · 63 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed PuckChamp	55c	147.84$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.01	378	32.5%123 W · 255 L	-12.7wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked PuckChamp	69c	145.05$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.05	354	61.3%217 W · 137 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked PuckChamp	68c	145$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.66	587	46.5%273 W · 314 L	-8.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked FTS	17c	139.45$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.76	440	49.3%217 W · 223 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0396…86babacked PuckChamp	73c	136.49$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.49	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked FTS	31c	132.52$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.36	1,702	41.2%701 W · 1,001 L	-44.0wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed FTS	12c	122$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.64	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed FTS	39c	116.38$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.53	438	60.5%265 W · 173 L	+44.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed PuckChamp	57c	115.5$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.77	118	47.5%56 W · 62 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed PuckChamp	59c	113$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.13	645	47.8%308 W · 337 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1e…4754backed PuckChamp	62c	112.9$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.9	93	47.3%44 W · 49 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6abd…94ecbacked FTS	38c	105.15$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadeb…5850backed FTS	38c	102.12$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.93	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b04…f8e5backed PuckChamp	68c	99.99$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	64cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec6…db1ebacked FTS	41c	80.49$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	105	57.1%60 W · 45 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed PuckChamp	62c	79.13$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.07	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7815…7310backed PuckChamp	64c	77.9$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.9	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+55.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed FTS	44c	76.25$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.55	416	32.7%136 W · 280 L	-37.8wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb140…ce3dbacked PuckChamp	54c	73.82$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.82	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+2.7wins	+0.27per pick	53cpaid	+49.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x114e…dcefbacked FTS	43c	70.23$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	35	71.4%25 W · 10 L	+2.9wins	+0.08per pick	63cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3214…cfcbbacked PuckChamp	60c	70$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	163	61.3%100 W · 63 L	+8.3wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x997c…51f3backed PuckChamp	73c	64.55$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.4	82	50%41 W · 41 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked PuckChamp	55c	64$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.56	899	38%342 W · 557 L	-45.9wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-30%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe010…5147backed FTS	24c	63.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.27	43	7%3 W · 40 L	-16.0wins	-0.37per pick	44cpaid	-88.8%equal weight	24-0.24 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked FTS	44c	59.48$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.17	86	55.8%48 W · 38 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1fd…10ccbacked PuckChamp	62c	52.41$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.87	86	51.2%44 W · 42 L	-7.5wins	-0.09per pick	60cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfce8…2686backed PuckChamp	58c	51.81$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.81	145	66.2%96 W · 49 L	+4.6wins	+0.03per pick	63cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa52…865bbacked PuckChamp	63c	51.36$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed FTS	44c	50.4$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.18	108	33.3%36 W · 72 L	-13.4wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed FTS	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	92	39.1%36 W · 56 L	-6.7wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed FTS	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	971	42.7%415 W · 556 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked FTS	37c	48$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.76	302	51.7%156 W · 146 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed PuckChamp	58c	46.16$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.39	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed PuckChamp	74c	45.94$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.1	377	45.9%173 W · 204 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74fa…c3e2backed FTS	41c	45.45$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.63	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.6wins	-0.24per pick	51cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed FTS	40c	43.59$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.44	170	40.6%69 W · 101 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b56…5711backed PuckChamp	70c	43.14$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.14	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+43.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…ab49backed PuckChamp	62c	40.32$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.32	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c5c…d463backed FTS	61c	39.29$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.11	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+1.7wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed PuckChamp	69c	38.95$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.08	813	45.1%367 W · 446 L	-26.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-20%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x277b…31fabacked PuckChamp	66c	37$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.58	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe530…ed7bbacked PuckChamp	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked PuckChamp	53c	31.45$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.77	569	45.2%257 W · 312 L	-18.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FTS	57c	31.26$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	2,378	47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L	+15.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed FTS	42c	31.04$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.91	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…7f23backed FTS	55c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed PuckChamp	68c	29.41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.41	606	60.7%368 W · 238 L	+8.9wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d57…5999backed FTS	56c	28.42$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3546…1a58backed FTS	37c	27.03$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	81	27.2%22 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked FTS	44c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	312	51.3%160 W · 152 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd659…393ebacked PuckChamp	61c	21.02$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.2	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked PuckChamp	61c	17.7$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.9	105	51.4%54 W · 51 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed PuckChamp	60c	17.25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.9	57	66.7%38 W · 19 L	+8.4wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group Athis page
Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp - Game 1 WinnerPuckChamp won
Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp - Game 2 WinnerPuckChamp won
Game Handicap: PckCp (-1.5) vs FTS (+1.5)PuckChamp won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: FTS vs PuckChamp (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event