Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa34bdd4aa54d52e0237052b8612c04b45e37bd6c6f0c08ccea3061117b0a84e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 36c | 300.07$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…1c88backed Yes | 70c | 284.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.88 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 64c | 234.32$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 190.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 53c | 184.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 179$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 177$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 172$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 30c | 171.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 160.65$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 44c | 118$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 31c | 118$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 54c | 109.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 107.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 49c | 106.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed Yes | 76c | 104.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 53c | 101$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 53c | 100.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 37c | 95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 13c | 92.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 37c | 81.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 67c | 81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 59c | 75.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 71.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 65.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 60c | 64.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 46c | 63.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 62.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 45c | 59.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 57.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 67c | 52.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 69c | 52.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 48c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 49c | 50.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 49.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 63c | 47.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 44c | 45.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 35c | 42.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 37c | 42.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 41c | 42.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 42.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 51c | 41.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 46c | 41.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…f3d2backed Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 29c | 39.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 55c | 36.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 53c | 34.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 50c | 33.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 33.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 80c | 32.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 34c | 32.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 64c | 31.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 69c | 31.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 46c | 30.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…a76ebacked Yes | 46c | 30.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 42c | 29.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 28.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 41c | 28.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 38c | 28.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 55c | 26.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 67c | 26.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57c7…3291backed Yes | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 53cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 68c | 24.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 71c | 22.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 72c | 21.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 72c | 21.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 63c | 21.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed Yes | 58c | 20.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 59c | 17.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 72c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.