Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2139e333b9b5de35cad04b0be74c2d026f71e01ef489181b864c6dbef737781
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 66c | 524.04$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.75 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 55c | 501.13$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.06 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 471.48$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.69 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 73c | 469.95$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.48 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 56c | 432.33$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.92 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 238.82$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 43c | 229.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 192.16$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.03 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 191$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 177$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 57c | 174.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 57c | 168.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 19c | 168.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 166$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 150$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 137.47$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 31c | 134.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.47 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 35c | 132.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 130$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 38c | 128.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.86 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed No | 46c | 120.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 40c | 117.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 113.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 111$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.81 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 110.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 110$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 47c | 109.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 33c | 101.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 72c | 100.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 99.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 97.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 31c | 93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 63c | 88.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 58c | 87.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 86.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 67c | 85.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 66c | 81.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…6a03backed Yes | 43c | 81.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 38c | 79.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 72.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 69.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 44c | 61.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 60.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 56.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 39c | 52.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…14ebbacked Yes | 42c | 51.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 51.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 45c | 51.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 49.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 22c | 47.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…f3d2backed No | 75c | 46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 58c | 45.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 28c | 44.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 67c | 44.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 68c | 43.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 43.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 70c | 42.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 24c | 41.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…3cd9backed Yes | 26c | 41.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 40.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 30c | 40.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 37c | 40.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 38.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e5…b7e9backed No | 77c | 36.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…4bc5backed No | 58c | 36.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 35.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 73c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 33.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 75c | 33.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 67c | 33.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 64c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 61c | 31.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 30.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 28.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 67c | 25.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 23.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 64c | 23.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 22.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 22.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3430…ccc7backed No | 69c | 21.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 21.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 65c | 19.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 71c | 18.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 65c | 18.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 62c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 64c | 17.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.