MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa34c40cca093c863c56068c791183c3c60381c3ab1ce3c7aa1655047e67e7881
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f48…235cbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 11,593$6,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,563.31 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 4,403$1,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,474.17 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 2,508$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.12 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 2,171$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.9 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 849$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.44 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 757.01$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.01 | 351 | 55.8%196 W · 155 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 718.13$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.33 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 555$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.35 | 1,359 | 50.8%690 W · 669 L | +12.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 452.2$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.23 | 1,671 | 49.1%820 W · 851 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 276$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.94 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 252.7$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.53 | 2,349 | 49.9%1,172 W · 1,177 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 207$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 141$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 139$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 360 | 48.9%176 W · 184 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 131.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 130.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 1,894 | 49.3%934 W · 960 L | +24.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 107.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 1,911 | 44.4%848 W · 1,063 L | -29.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 105$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 858 | 54.4%467 W · 391 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4,107 | 57.6%2,366 W · 1,741 L | +65.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 91.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 716 | 52.4%375 W · 341 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked San Francisco Giants | 36c | 77.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 624 | 46.8%292 W · 332 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked San Francisco Giants | 46c | 72.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 2,148 | 51.3%1,102 W · 1,046 L | +50.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed San Francisco Giants | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 435 | 49.2%214 W · 221 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 53.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 44.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,848 | 50.3%930 W · 918 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 43.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 42.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 410 | 48.5%199 W · 211 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 42.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 41.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -36.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aae…7efcbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 4,401 | 47.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L | -76.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 20.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1,960 | 41.4%812 W · 1,148 L | -25.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.