MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3516c40ff362bf7a555d3d78b3c3d6d606dc391ff34af5749486255706e50cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55a6…eeb0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 896.84$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.37 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 857.63$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.56 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 837.02$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 784.34$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves | 56c | 457.13$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.11 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 381.23$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.74 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 374.09$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.91 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 14c | 371.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 307.33$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 220.59$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 17c | 155.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 22c | 147.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 30c | 145.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 130.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Atlanta Braves | 76c | 116.3$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Atlanta Braves | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 96.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 88.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 80.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…e29dbacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 79.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 70.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 58.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 20c | 57.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 56.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Atlanta Braves | 68c | 46.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 38.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 36.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 36.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 36.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 20.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 20.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia PhilliesAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.