South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa38097ca11a48ffeb74281580178acb28bad27d8513b2dc78a85b350cffe11e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Club Bolívarof Fluminense FC, Club Bolívar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Fluminense FC | 38c | 2,446$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.6 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Club Bolívar | 43c | 1,994$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.25 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Fluminense FC | 25c | 1,355$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.67 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Club Bolívar | 64c | 1,184$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.24 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Club Bolívar | 64c | 1,113$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.36 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Club Bolívar | 64c | 920$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.2 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fluminense FC | 55c | 682.26$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.74 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fluminense FC | 49c | 553.31$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.83 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Fluminense FC | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Club Bolívar | 61c | 352.52$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.43 | 273 | 49.5%135 W · 138 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Club Bolívar | 62c | 345.91$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.45 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Fluminense FC | 49c | 333.47$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.14 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Club Bolívar | 62c | 279.71$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.29 | 275 | 49.1%135 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Fluminense FC | 45c | 243.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…5715backed Club Bolívar | 63c | 232.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…7a37backed Fluminense FC | 13c | 228.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Fluminense FC | 16c | 153.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Club Bolívar | 67c | 125.26$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Club Bolívar | 65c | 78.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Fluminense FC | 37c | 76.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Fluminense FC | 59c | 62.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…e562backed Fluminense FC | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…0b83backed Fluminense FC | 39c | 57.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Fluminense FC | 39c | 57.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Club Bolívar | 61c | 57.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Fluminense FC | 34c | 55.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd065…93e8backed Club Bolívar | 75c | 52.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb1…8ec8backed Club Bolívar | 60c | 51.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…cf7cbacked Club Bolívar | 63c | 46.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Club Bolívar | 56c | 34.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…9b6cbacked Club Bolívar | 62c | 24.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…e961backed Club Bolívar | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)this page
- Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)Club Bolívar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.