Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3bcc86771e938ed4721d86db15e1567fe76f114da88e3ad3f07ca7f817becca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 19c | 1,573$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.6 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,145$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.05 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 14c | 712.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 532$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 528.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 6c | 510$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 6c | 475.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 588 | 24.8%146 W · 442 L | -18.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 8c | 421.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 378.5$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed Yes | 16c | 377.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 5c | 330.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 14c | 307.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 285.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1,730 | 18%311 W · 1,419 L | +73.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 13c | 255.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 1,627 | 37.8%615 W · 1,012 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 254.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 231$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 21c | 213.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 9c | 212.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…8a4dbacked Yes | 24c | 210.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 7c | 208.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 16c | 205.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 10c | 201.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 199.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 17c | 199.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 20c | 193$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 13c | 185.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,026 | 25%256 W · 770 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 174.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 17c | 160.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 9c | 154.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 15c | 150.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 20c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 966 | 33.3%322 W · 644 L | +27.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 8c | 143.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 18c | 137.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 135.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,843 | 27.5%506 W · 1,337 L | +23.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 9c | 126.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…f3b4backed Yes | 16c | 126.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 20c | 124.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 13c | 121.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +58.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 21c | 120.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 119.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…7cbabacked Yes | 14c | 115$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb34…b639backed Yes | 13c | 112$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0120…6bbbbacked Yes | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…c19ebacked Yes | 14c | 108$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 18c | 106.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…9a52backed Yes | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb237…3ab0backed Yes | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…7656backed Yes | 16c | 104.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 103.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 20c | 103.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 17c | 101.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 101.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1,566 | 16.3%255 W · 1,311 L | +22.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,111 | 23.7%263 W · 848 L | +72.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b982backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 290 | 29%84 W · 206 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a41…9a6dbacked Yes | 14c | 96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…06c5backed Yes | 21c | 95.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2ed3backed Yes | 14c | 94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 16c | 84.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7f…3d86backed Yes | 15c | 84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed09…9f58backed Yes | 21c | 73.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 15c | 70.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 80c | 62.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 19c | 55.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a63…5eb1backed Yes | 21c | 48.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 80c | 40.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 78c | 28.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 27.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…916fbacked No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…333bbacked No | 79c | 17.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…9dadbacked No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…e7dcbacked No | 80c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 6°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.