Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdfaee61022089a7a9db9ceaca02e9932dd22d826bffd78965c12d02359be2e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 3c | 1,933$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,260$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.57 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…8ed1backed No | 66c | 461.02$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.94 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 17c | 446.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 34c | 405.27$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.43 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 343.99$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 303.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 14c | 299.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…36c7backed No | 71c | 282.71$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…a955backed No | 74c | 275.36$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2676…32bbbacked No | 77c | 259.82$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 19c | 219.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 213.84$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 20c | 211.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 198.18$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 178.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 171.45$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 30c | 166.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 29c | 155.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 27c | 149.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 149.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 23c | 149.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed No | 65c | 148.59$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed Yes | 28c | 136.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 16c | 133.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 18c | 132.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 128.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 73c | 124.79$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 123.45$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 120.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 18c | 110.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 80c | 108.54$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 19c | 107.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 17c | 106.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked No | 79c | 103.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 103.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 29c | 101.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ff34backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 30c | 99.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 27c | 94.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…5bdebacked Yes | 34c | 93.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 89.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 70c | 88.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 35c | 85.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 28c | 84.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 21c | 82.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…3e59backed Yes | 31c | 80.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…b4e2backed Yes | 34c | 80.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed Yes | 31c | 78.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 71c | 77.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 80c | 75.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 30c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 33c | 73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 36c | 71.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 69.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 21c | 68.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed Yes | 31c | 66.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 71c | 66.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f5…a937backed Yes | 30c | 65.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…e907backed Yes | 32c | 63.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 33c | 60.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 28c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 79c | 54.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 67c | 54.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 54.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed Yes | 29c | 52.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 29c | 52.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 31c | 51.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 29c | 48.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…307dbacked Yes | 30c | 48.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 48.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 47.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 33c | 46.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 25c | 45.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 65c | 44.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4611…3790backed Yes | 27c | 44.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…2e65backed Yes | 30c | 44.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 30c | 42.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b1…9bdabacked Yes | 34c | 41.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46a…47a1backed Yes | 31c | 41.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb47…b128backed Yes | 26c | 39.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 71c | 38.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed Yes | 30c | 36.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1411…6b02backed Yes | 29c | 35.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb316…e3eebacked No | 70c | 34.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed Yes | 33c | 34.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 6°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.