TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,873
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,422

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,873 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc4b…db02backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107233.3%24 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes3c1,933$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.961,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes24c1,260$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.572,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ea…8ed1backed No66c461.02$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.941457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes17c446.05$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7435018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes34c405.27$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.4348331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No75c343.99$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.541,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c303.86$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes14c299.87$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.451,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x197a…36c7backed No71c282.71$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a7f…a955backed No74c275.36$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.33771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2676…32bbbacked No77c259.82$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes19c219.19$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6532818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No68c213.84$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.63,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes20c211.8$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.271,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.961,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.541,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7c…f555backed Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644526.7%12 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No69c198.18$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.62,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes16c178.71$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.986,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c171.45$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.38,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes30c166.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9813930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes29c155.94$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0970133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes27c149.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4116234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes11c149.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes23c149.46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4827756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed No65c148.59$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3114251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed Yes28c136.32$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1730859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes16c133.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8785330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9536…68f9backed Yes18c132.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.396121.3%13 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+85.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c128.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.747,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…cdc1backed No73c124.79$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6910562.9%66 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No70c123.45$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes19c120.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.697,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd637…7617backed Yes18c110.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3313533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed No80c108.54$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2518550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes19c107.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7841046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes17c106.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.711,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd75c…fd4ebacked No79c103.53$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.115232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No76c103.37$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3286050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes29c101.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe01f…ff34backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511145%50 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes30c99.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9943525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes27c94.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4713533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9723…5bdebacked Yes34c93.15$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No67c89.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.761,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No70c88.23$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8131868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebee…7f68backed Yes35c85.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.919529.5%28 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes28c84.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6256721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92f4…63d9backed Yes21c82.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.278130.9%25 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa19b…3e59backed Yes31c80.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.263033.3%10 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-31.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaacc…b4e2backed Yes34c80.86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.11616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-68%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed Yes31c78.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4810154.5%55 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No71c77.77$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.781,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5407…dbc0backed No80c75.3$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3116764.1%107 W · 60 L-13.7wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-12.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes30c75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2563538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Yes33c73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.89407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1927…9649backed Yes36c71.97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263040%12 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes31c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c69.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes21c68.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7623022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe073…abb2backed Yes31c66.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.714427.3%12 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No71c66.29$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1529558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8f5…a937backed Yes30c65.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2918…e907backed Yes32c63.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x290c…ab10backed Yes33c60.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203844.7%17 W · 21 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.427464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b0d…9501backed Yes28c59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.331533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5f8…8e32backed No79c54.98$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4717956.4%101 W · 78 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No67c54.6$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c54.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.759,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed Yes29c52.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.553557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes29c52.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.316738.8%26 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes31c51.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1730046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.540438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1142061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes29c48.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.151,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x571c…307dbacked Yes30c48.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.771127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No68c48.12$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.221,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes30c47.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.251,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ad…8db9backed Yes33c46.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.544344.2%19 W · 24 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+48.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes25c45.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1633243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed No65c44.71$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.824841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4611…3790backed Yes27c44.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.04319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce26…2e65backed Yes30c44.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.240%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x883f…0634backed Yes30c42.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.97536%27 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b1…9bdabacked Yes34c41.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.18825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb46a…47a1backed Yes31c41.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.72250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5525239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe058…cf72backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb47…b128backed Yes26c39.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.19520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+123.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe54f…977cbacked No71c38.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.13366.7%22 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a39…acc7backed Yes30c36.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.049160.4%55 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1411…6b02backed Yes29c35.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No71c35.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.381,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes34c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.972466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb316…e3eebacked No70c34.79$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc867…8b00backed Yes33c34.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.483743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.