Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe962d13a77d9b62a786e7ff8f226ca7cc125d6e81973ca71eb9d3005ad082518
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7e0…5bb3backed Yes | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f2…33e5backed No | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 8c | 720.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 498.54$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 45c | 315.47$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.23 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 47c | 258.47$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.09 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 10c | 255.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 231.49$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…30e0backed Yes | 64c | 230.98$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 9c | 228.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 48c | 205.79$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 55c | 200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.19 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 199.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 43c | 170$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 169.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 54c | 150.36$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 149.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.58 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 148.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 147.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 144.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…3ae0backed No | 13c | 138.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 45c | 135$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 134.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 55c | 133.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 40c | 125.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 121.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 13c | 121.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 66c | 115.37$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 108.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 46c | 107.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…adf1backed Yes | 43c | 100.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 59c | 89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 62c | 87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…f30bbacked Yes | 62c | 81.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 75.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…b710backed No | 60c | 73.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed09…9f58backed Yes | 38c | 72.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 60c | 70.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 66.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 42c | 66.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 56c | 65.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…7ed9backed Yes | 66c | 64.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 40c | 63.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 51c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 45c | 59.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 28c | 57.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 55c | 57.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 44c | 55.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 42c | 54.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 55c | 53.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…1d1abacked No | 57c | 51.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 64c | 50.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 59c | 50.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 68c | 50.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f5…a937backed Yes | 39c | 50.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 33c | 50.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ff34backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 42c | 48.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…307dbacked Yes | 61c | 48.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 42c | 47.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 50c | 46.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 43c | 46.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbd…aa80backed Yes | 61c | 45.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 36c | 45.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 44c | 44.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…916fbacked No | 45c | 44.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed Yes | 40c | 44.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 35c | 42.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…0366backed Yes | 43c | 41.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 53c | 40.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…2750backed Yes | 75c | 39.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 53c | 39.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c23…d94cbacked Yes | 53c | 39.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 39.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 33c | 38.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdd…ea7fbacked No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 66c | 38.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 39c | 38.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 37c | 38.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 39c | 37.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 41c | 37.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 54c | 37.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 47c | 35.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 6°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.