Lol · resolved market

LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3c142b95e61629f971c49489f739ea53ca7ce94e8527df52b101436e2532ff6

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: FlyQuestof FlyQuest, Disguised
Resolved: Aug 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $113,920
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $119,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,920 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Lol
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e3e…f882backed Disguised	0c	34,572$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.18	1,113	39%434 W · 679 L	-44.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Disguised	20c	10,417$2,083 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,083.33	434	42.4%184 W · 250 L	+18.6wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d4d…96f3backed Disguised	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked Disguised	9c	7,000$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610	56	37.5%21 W · 35 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed Disguised	11c	6,666$717 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$716.61	407	26.8%109 W · 298 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Disguised	17c	3,870$658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$657.97	1,468	28.9%424 W · 1,044 L	+23.5wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed Disguised	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	252	2%5 W · 247 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-93.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae27…6fb2backed Disguised	4c	2,111$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	92	33.7%31 W · 61 L	+8.1wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked FlyQuest	64c	1,713$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$613.39	225	47.6%107 W · 118 L	-11.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Disguised	6c	1,377$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.95	2,508	39.8%999 W · 1,509 L	-76.4wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Disguised	19c	1,058$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	68	54.4%37 W · 31 L	+5.4wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x78fa…d5c3backed Disguised	23c	928.38$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.07	114	43%49 W · 65 L	+9.1wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Disguised	18c	850.4$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.57	453	38%172 W · 281 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x264d…e4abbacked Disguised	17c	718.89$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.74	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Disguised	29c	586.79$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.63	1,826	39.9%728 W · 1,098 L	-61.4wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3a5…534cbacked Disguised	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	207	39.1%81 W · 126 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb35f…cf4cbacked Disguised	17c	511.66$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.99	448	46.2%207 W · 241 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5acf…ead4backed Disguised	39c	507.87$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	161	46%74 W · 87 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61c6…2e9fbacked Disguised	10c	493$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.3	83	39.8%33 W · 50 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Disguised	10c	400.04$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	389	31.9%124 W · 265 L	-14.5wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Disguised	18c	360$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.8	356	42.4%151 W · 205 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Disguised	13c	351.99$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.12	2,905	38.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L	-118.5wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed FlyQuest	80c	350$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.16	1,057	46.1%487 W · 570 L	-11.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf990…88bcbacked Disguised	18c	343.26$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.79	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+55.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Disguised	13c	337.66$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.93	1,058	23.5%249 W · 809 L	-75.8wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Disguised	17c	303.29$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.56	344	48.3%166 W · 178 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed FlyQuest	78c	283.02$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.26	1,151	56%644 W · 507 L	+25.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc648…dcc2backed Disguised	20c	281$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.41	222	38.7%86 W · 136 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00b…eae1backed Disguised	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…2766backed Disguised	9c	268$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.22	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-4.6wins	-0.14per pick	41cpaid	-35%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5668…9af4backed Disguised	17c	245.82$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.32	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+74.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72da…9b77backed Disguised	22c	227.28$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.6	41	22%9 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x640c…1369backed Disguised	9c	217.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.28per pick	43cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa113…0215backed Disguised	10c	196.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd325…2482backed Disguised	27c	186.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.38	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-3.0wins	-0.19per pick	25cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4626…6834backed Disguised	14c	152.51$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.83	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	+13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Disguised	19c	151.21$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.73	179	43.6%78 W · 101 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Disguised	18c	149.98$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	1,447	13.3%192 W · 1,255 L	-109.5wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Disguised	20c	142.85$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.57	343	40.5%139 W · 204 L	-18.2wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4287…3d5ebacked Disguised	18c	137.61$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.77	51	35.3%18 W · 33 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Disguised	20c	108$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.38	1,899	37.1%705 W · 1,194 L	-113.9wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked FlyQuest	79c	106.63$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.19	1,464	43.4%636 W · 828 L	-32.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Disguised	18c	101.86$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.33	246	42.3%104 W · 142 L	-15.6wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Disguised	32c	100$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	704	43.9%309 W · 395 L	-15.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed FlyQuest	67c	100$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	181	65.7%119 W · 62 L	+23.7wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4b46…995fbacked Disguised	19c	99.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed FlyQuest	80c	97.5$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.5	399	51.1%204 W · 195 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Disguised	35c	85.49$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.03	86	44.2%38 W · 48 L	-5.9wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6908…d2f4backed Disguised	12c	83.75$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe720…ce31backed Disguised	18c	81.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.64	53	35.8%19 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Disguised	22c	81.25$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	347	42.1%146 W · 201 L	-13.1wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Disguised	23c	75.79$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.37	978	54.4%532 W · 446 L	+48.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Disguised	22c	75$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.9wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17f7…4f7cbacked Disguised	22c	74.19$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.19	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	46cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6de2…d0e5backed Disguised	24c	69.58$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.01	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-3.7wins	-0.21per pick	49cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4509…58aebacked Disguised	24c	66.7$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.17	1,055	39.6%418 W · 637 L	-74.9wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed FlyQuest	80c	57.75$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.57	1,218	39.9%486 W · 732 L	-65.4wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Disguised	29c	48$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.96	3,131	33.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L	-150.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed FlyQuest	75c	47.7$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.81	448	51.8%232 W · 216 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Disguised	33c	45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	212	31.1%66 W · 146 L	-14.3wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed FlyQuest	79c	33.34$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.08	156	42.9%67 W · 89 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked FlyQuest	69c	27.52$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.53	580	43.3%251 W · 329 L	-47.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-27%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FlyQuest	68c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.4	2,679	35.7%957 W · 1,722 L	-153.5wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3211…9ee3backed FlyQuest	68c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.4	110	57.3%63 W · 47 L	+4.5wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa7…dd91backed FlyQuest	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x060d…1094backed FlyQuest	80c	18.75$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.75	206	21.8%45 W · 161 L	-18.1wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Seasonthis page
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)FlyQuest won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised - Game 1 WinnerFlyQuest won
LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised - Game 2 WinnerFlyQuest won
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event