Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Qairat FK (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3c1777f5d46243ef66dc5a23879840854aabc5b03aef314b93cbf602418e63c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Qairat FKof Qairat FK, FK Sutjeska Nikšić
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Qairat FK | 8c | 2,066$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.99 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Qairat FK | 33c | 1,482$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.61 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 77c | 1,419$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.57 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Qairat FK | 65c | 749.84$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Qairat FK | 22c | 734.61$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.34 | 467 | 41.5%194 W · 273 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 67c | 693.73$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.8 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 69c | 600$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 222 | 45%100 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 67c | 568$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.47 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 67c | 568$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.47 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Qairat FK | 32c | 486.42$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.18 | 299 | 49.5%148 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…fb43backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 67c | 450$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Qairat FK | 32c | 400$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 41c | 365$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 69c | 345$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.36 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Qairat FK | 33c | 331.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.39 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 66c | 240.53$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.12 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Qairat FK | 31c | 231$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.69 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 67c | 190.01$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 26c | 189$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ba…dc2bbacked FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…8b89backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Qairat FK | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Qairat FK | 33c | 97.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 79c | 90.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Qairat FK | 30c | 81.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Qairat FK | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Qairat FK | 66c | 59.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…e4b5backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 68c | 56.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 68c | 42.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ec…81bebacked FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 34c | 41.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 67c | 36.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 68c | 35.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 66c | 26.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 306 | 56.9%174 W · 132 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Qairat FK (-1.5)this page
- FK Sutjeska Nikšić vs. Qairat FK: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FK Sutjeska Nikšić vs. Qairat FK: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Sutjeska Nikšić vs. Qairat FK: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FK Sutjeska Nikšić vs. Qairat FK: FK Sutjeska Nikšić O/U 0.5Under won
- FK Sutjeska Nikšić vs. Qairat FK: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Sutjeska Nikšić vs. Qairat FK: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Sutjeska Nikšić vs. Qairat FK: O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Sutjeska Nikšić vs. Qairat FK: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Sutjeska Nikšić vs. Qairat FK: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FK Sutjeska Nikšić (-1.5)Qairat FK won
- Spread: Qairat FK (-2.5)FK Sutjeska Nikšić won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.