TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Mousquetaires vs MINLATE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mousquetairesof Mousquetaires, MINLATE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,125

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,125 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8405…8501backed MINLATE50c14,832$7,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,363.9683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Mousquetaires50c7,103$3,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,540.523,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Mousquetaires48c5,979$2,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,100.442,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Mousquetaires50c4,050$2,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,017.477,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed MINLATE51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.9912752%66 W · 61 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Mousquetaires62c3,794$2,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.451,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Mousquetaires50c2,867$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.2321939.7%87 W · 132 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Mousquetaires50c2,439$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.492,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked MINLATE50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75075056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Mousquetaires63c1,428$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.373,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Mousquetaires51c1,388$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6832,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad09…3c3fbacked MINLATE45c1,278$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.0911344.2%50 W · 63 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked MINLATE49c1,203$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.1436253.3%193 W · 169 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Mousquetaires50c901.58$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.5241847.1%197 W · 221 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked MINLATE60c687.18$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.385,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2f…a15fbacked MINLATE60c650.21$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.8319055.8%106 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1118…6f82backed Mousquetaires50c621.4$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x649d…ec03backed Mousquetaires49c608.32$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.342060%12 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+38.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Mousquetaires44c600$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33678348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MINLATE50c583.78$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.974,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed MINLATE53c568.22$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.417034.7%59 W · 111 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcf2…1e5bbacked MINLATE60c525$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.0623858%138 W · 100 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Mousquetaires68c522.56$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.96,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf95b…42c5backed Mousquetaires37c521$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Mousquetaires40c499.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf0…9bf5backed MINLATE52c491.02$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.49771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+35.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed MINLATE56c466.51$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.2580744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc6…478bbacked MINLATE63c361$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.43540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed MINLATE40c333$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.7429244.5%130 W · 162 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc18e…344dbacked MINLATE63c325$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Mousquetaires49c324.88$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.317849.4%88 W · 90 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked MINLATE49c322.61$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8711037.3%41 W · 69 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed MINLATE38c320$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.6246344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked MINLATE35c299$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.148948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e64…284bbacked MINLATE61c295$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.252070%14 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+31.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8945…640bbacked MINLATE62c292.7$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.9926257.6%151 W · 111 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Mousquetaires45c278.2$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7821956.2%123 W · 96 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MINLATE29c278$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.622,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed MINLATE60c269$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.3339239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb69f…d51cbacked Mousquetaires59c254.58$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.585641.1%23 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6df…1cf4backed Mousquetaires36c248.61$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.617041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed MINLATE21c216.33$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.562,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa11d…72a8backed Mousquetaires41c199.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11810442.3%44 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0e…13aabacked MINLATE44c193.02$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9315638.5%60 W · 96 L-19.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Mousquetaires53c177.49$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2495849.8%477 W · 481 L-17.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Mousquetaires64c173.7$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.295,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked MINLATE48c170.51$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6245956.9%261 W · 198 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4a3…bce8backed MINLATE24c168$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.323262.5%20 W · 12 L+6.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+61.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x860a…1a30backed Mousquetaires37c165$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.95560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+33.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0d4…0289backed Mousquetaires61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9317546.3%81 W · 94 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Mousquetaires50c163.71$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8652951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed MINLATE39c162.64$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.952,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe6d…9d6abacked Mousquetaires52c154$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.928047.5%38 W · 42 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e07…3545backed MINLATE37c150$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.417647.4%36 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Mousquetaires49c150$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.516846.4%78 W · 90 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed MINLATE36c148$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3127443.1%118 W · 156 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed MINLATE10c146.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6245224.3%110 W · 342 L-52.4wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4412…82c6backed MINLATE60c135.86$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.991346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x931c…bf4bbacked Mousquetaires38c130.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2232351.4%166 W · 157 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x155b…d7babacked Mousquetaires48c123$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0140652.2%212 W · 194 L+22.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed Mousquetaires52c121.61$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3752750.7%267 W · 260 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Mousquetaires39c119.7$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.412,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed MINLATE63c113.69$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6245244.5%201 W · 251 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed MINLATE38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3829647.6%141 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bc2…7ed7backed MINLATE55c99.91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553844.7%17 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3262…3e5fbacked Mousquetaires50c98.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.98580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+66.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa62c…a3c1backed MINLATE51c98.88$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6810651.9%55 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Mousquetaires35c96.69$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8535744.3%158 W · 199 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f3…f7dfbacked MINLATE60c83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.818063.9%115 W · 65 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Mousquetaires37c79.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.391,28137.8%484 W · 797 L+5.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mousquetaires39c79.72$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.021,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Mousquetaires45c78.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3746843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d40…7b78backed Mousquetaires50c78.92$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.461560%9 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8821…32c6backed MINLATE60c78.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.995957.6%34 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Mousquetaires42c75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.252,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e3d…bbfabacked MINLATE49c73.25$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.189848%47 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Mousquetaires79c73$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.21,30426.5%345 W · 959 L-89.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed MINLATE42c72.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.442,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Mousquetaires39c63.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9387244.8%391 W · 481 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed MINLATE61c63.82$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.937847.4%37 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe980…57c9backed MINLATE50c62.28$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.143259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe52e…ac6dbacked Mousquetaires49c61.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.222365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+24.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfcf0…b95dbacked MINLATE51c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.618751.3%96 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Mousquetaires37c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.819344%85 W · 108 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed MINLATE43c59.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.342,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed Mousquetaires65c56.88$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9511646.6%54 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea37…94f3backed MINLATE53c56.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3032951.7%170 W · 159 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea7…1be7backed Mousquetaires39c56.42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.421855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+32%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked MINLATE49c54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.479538.9%37 W · 58 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5043…c922backed Mousquetaires47c50.05$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.392334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x37d7…f131backed Mousquetaires42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2533451.5%172 W · 162 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Mousquetaires40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3024633.3%82 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedaa…89b4backed MINLATE40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024535.9%88 W · 157 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed MINLATE61c42.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7410956.9%62 W · 47 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd2…1f27backed Mousquetaires48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6754439.7%216 W · 328 L-1.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Mousquetaires31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.636845.9%169 W · 199 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ba6…2a7ebacked Mousquetaires42c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.22951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed MINLATE31c38.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.861,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2003…3a6bbacked MINLATE44c38.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7610131.7%32 W · 69 L-21.3wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-40.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x0a3a…f788backed Mousquetaires46c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8516338.7%63 W · 100 L-13.8wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.