MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4427f408da65aec78bfd6d56a4a006dbb343067b2d575189882802a804f30ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 28c | 3,472$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,487 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 2,469$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 2,371$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.02 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 1,804$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.17 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 1,016$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 980$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.55 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 793.49$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.9 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 566.97$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 530.02$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.61 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 386.2$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 295$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.23 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 264.88$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.23 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Cleveland Guardians | 12c | 169.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Seattle Mariners | 29c | 114.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.86 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 67c | 98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Seattle Mariners | 28c | 97.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 92.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 91.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 82.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 64.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 24c | 58.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 28c | 52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 40.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 25.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 21.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 17.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 14.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland GuardiansSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.