MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd77880aca0470db35915a0f24235846a5d13a0e26e72831cc6530b4d7a5d7161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 52c | 87,373$45,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,433.95 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 48c | 70,000$33,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,400 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 48c | 18,233$8,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,481.16 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 11,317$5,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,860.94 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 48c | 10,412$4,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,414.46 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 48c | 10,000$4,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,807.05 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 9,003$4,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,318.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 7,540$3,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,835.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 48c | 5,370$2,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,792.65 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.98 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 48c | 4,423$2,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,297.95 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 2,355$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 49c | 2,024$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.08 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 1,672$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.66 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 1,424$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.53 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Under | 48c | 1,400$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728 | 178 | 53.4%95 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 50c | 1,111$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.5 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 50c | 995.28$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.64 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 49c | 714.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.35 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 53c | 516.55$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.77 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 359$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 48c | 352.61$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.36 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 54c | 335.12$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.15 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 47c | 303.98$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.75 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 296.15$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 52c | 261$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.72 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 45c | 243.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.38 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 53c | 241.66$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 53c | 194.34$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 189.34$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.35 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 52c | 175$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 53c | 135.68$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 54c | 106.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 44c | 105.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 57c | 94.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 93.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 48c | 92.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Under | 55c | 82.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 55c | 82.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 80.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 48c | 76.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 48c | 72.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Under | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 48c | 67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 49c | 65.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 48c | 62.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 48c | 62.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…87a6backed Under | 48c | 48.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Under | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 52c | 45.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…28ffbacked Over | 53c | 43.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Under | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Over | 53c | 37.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | -16.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76e0…3488backed Under | 52c | 33.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 46c | 24.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 48c | 21.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 52c | 20.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Under | 56c | 18.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland GuardiansSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.