MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4615118ad9e6a4890c25b9b4297029a8f494cf2d9413f6bd37c1ccd4ff59e8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 12,149$6,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,036.83 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 8,402$5,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,161.16 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 63c | 1,500$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.61 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 37c | 1,466$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.42 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 32c | 1,330$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.7 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 37c | 1,290$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.76 | 384 | 53.6%206 W · 178 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 37c | 905.44$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.74 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 54c | 877$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.42 | 820 | 42.6%349 W · 471 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 38c | 692.43$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.13 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 42c | 679.52$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.51 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 47c | 635.27$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.53 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 34c | 542.64$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.36 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 71c | 442.66$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.32 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 32c | 407.06$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.26 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 22c | 406.05$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 76c | 358.13$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.48 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Over | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.95 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 32c | 295$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 54c | 243.72$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 38c | 235.74$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 62c | 218$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.84 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 169.81$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.97 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 41c | 146.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Under | 63c | 146.14$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Under | 62c | 145$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 37c | 112.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 17c | 111.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 38c | 98.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 86.87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 73c | 82.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 61c | 78.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 42c | 73.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 42c | 73.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 51c | 70.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 62c | 58.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…a533backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 50c | 46.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Over | 36c | 44.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 73c | 41.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 36c | 41.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 53c | 37.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 43c | 33.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 61c | 33.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 32c | 33.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 48c | 32.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 32c | 32.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 48c | 26.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 50c | 24.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 48c | 24.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Over | 72c | 20.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 63c | 18.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 61c | 17.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 61c | 16.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.