MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec47b39a01f0bab4217a3ffe0372e4aff8b7169744182ee6c061f06ca58b58d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 53c | 51,415$27,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,249.76 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 16,613$7,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,804.76 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 10,073$4,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,284.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 55c | 9,089$4,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,996.73 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 6,997$3,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,708.41 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…b5d9backed Under | 53c | 6,253$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 6,130$2,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,371.57 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 47c | 5,831$2,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,098.7 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 47c | 2,710$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.08 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 2,246$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.43 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 47c | 2,100$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 2,100$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 47c | 2,003$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.58 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 47c | 1,532$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.96 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 54c | 1,530$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.8 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 1,221$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.99 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 54c | 1,132$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.32 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 47c | 968.31$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.2 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 51c | 891.68$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.76 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 47c | 850$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 758.69$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.52 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 54c | 754.72$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.55 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 54c | 754.36$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.35 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 55c | 726.32$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.84 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Over | 49c | 610$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.1 | 262 | 55.7%146 W · 116 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 47c | 585$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.05 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 577$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 47c | 576$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.28 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 47c | 572.5$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.02 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 47c | 531$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.43 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 46c | 431.81$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.07 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 50c | 423.22$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.2 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…c0f0backed Under | 52c | 350$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 47c | 269.42$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.48 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 51c | 211.61$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.92 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 11c | 189.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 52c | 178.31$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 47c | 159.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 56c | 153$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 47c | 152.55$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 49c | 129.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Over | 46c | 129.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 46c | 99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 46c | 96.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 70c | 77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 56c | 76.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 56c | 76.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 47c | 65.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 45c | 59.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 51c | 48.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Under | 54c | 44.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 73c | 41.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 54c | 29.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…79ddbacked Over | 49c | 28.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 48c | 27.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 54c | 23.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 46c | 22.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed Under | 55c | 21.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.