TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,470
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,537

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,470 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros37c15,394$5,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,651.4711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Houston Astros38c9,487$3,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,885.31,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays62c7,127$4,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,418.666,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays62c6,039$3,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,743.984,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Toronto Blue Jays63c3,163$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.5373949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Toronto Blue Jays63c3,163$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.5379255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Houston Astros38c3,134$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,943.081,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros37c1,881$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.433,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays62c1,706$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.056,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Houston Astros37c1,600$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.9664452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays65c1,501$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.662,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Toronto Blue Jays63c1,187$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.091,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec95…a2dcbacked Toronto Blue Jays63c1,146$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.75451.9%28 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Toronto Blue Jays62c1,077$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.741,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6205,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros36c869.9$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.3812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Toronto Blue Jays63c792.29$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.141,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Toronto Blue Jays62c737.72$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.942,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros37c605$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.78,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Houston Astros38c564.11$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.7556253.2%299 W · 263 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked Toronto Blue Jays63c550$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.526255.7%146 W · 116 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays68c528$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.188,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays64c505.32$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.282,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Toronto Blue Jays62c500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3101,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d23…251cbacked Toronto Blue Jays63c476.13$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9611751.3%60 W · 57 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Toronto Blue Jays62c390$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.81,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Toronto Blue Jays63c367.63$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.6140447.8%193 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Houston Astros39c351$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.111,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Toronto Blue Jays63c316$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.0828753.3%153 W · 134 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Toronto Blue Jays63c316$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.0827952%145 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee4f…c0f0backed Toronto Blue Jays63c300$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1895749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Toronto Blue Jays63c299.99$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.9945252.4%237 W · 215 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays63c193.2$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.019,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3555…208ebacked Toronto Blue Jays63c166.67$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10513666.2%90 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros37c164$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.322,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays62c153.24$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Houston Astros35c142.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8648851.6%252 W · 236 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Houston Astros35c127.4$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8152638.4%202 W · 324 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Houston Astros39c124.51$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9528749.5%142 W · 145 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed Toronto Blue Jays64c109.38$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7067449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Toronto Blue Jays62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6287750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x702e…ff44backed Toronto Blue Jays62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6226444.3%117 W · 147 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Toronto Blue Jays63c97$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1161250.5%309 W · 303 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Toronto Blue Jays63c94$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2228347.3%134 W · 149 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf095…58c6backed Houston Astros38c87.21$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0710351.5%53 W · 50 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Houston Astros37c86.97$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7979955.9%447 W · 352 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x402a…624fbacked Houston Astros35c86.01$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6322949.8%114 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Houston Astros35c85.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7146152.1%240 W · 221 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56fa…30cebacked Houston Astros35c85.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7123357.5%134 W · 99 L+22.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Houston Astros39c76.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9221343.2%92 W · 121 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b2…79ddbacked Toronto Blue Jays63c74.25$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.784257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbff0…2fbabacked Toronto Blue Jays62c68.39$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.64654.3%25 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c49…1862backed Toronto Blue Jays63c63.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4035353.8%190 W · 163 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Houston Astros70c59.87$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.681,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Houston Astros35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1453655.8%299 W · 237 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Houston Astros37c43.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6852750.1%264 W · 263 L+19.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Houston Astros35c42.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8646255.8%258 W · 204 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a51…bf4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays63c39.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9627852.2%145 W · 133 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Houston Astros38c36.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.451,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Toronto Blue Jays60c35.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9729350.9%149 W · 144 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Houston Astros35c34.1$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2255645.3%252 W · 304 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Toronto Blue Jays66c29.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.732,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6676…22f3backed Toronto Blue Jays64c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1652947.4%251 W · 278 L-24.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56b4…11adbacked Toronto Blue Jays79c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7517148%82 W · 89 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a96…b382backed Toronto Blue Jays63c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1239652.8%209 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Toronto Blue Jays63c23.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515953.5%85 W · 74 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e4a…4ce0backed Toronto Blue Jays63c23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4916155.9%90 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays55c22.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Toronto Blue Jays62c22.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6878854.6%430 W · 358 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Toronto Blue Jays63c22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8620551.7%106 W · 99 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9c…8927backed Toronto Blue Jays63c22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8618751.9%97 W · 90 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x858c…84b1backed Toronto Blue Jays64c21.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147350.7%37 W · 36 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Toronto Blue Jays53c19.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6587370.1%612 W · 261 L+91.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbe0a…b267backed Toronto Blue Jays62c17.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.612154.5%66 W · 55 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Toronto Blue Jays63c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.081,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Toronto Blue Jays63c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0876752.3%401 W · 366 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d4…e361backed Toronto Blue Jays63c15.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.031163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+31.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.