Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa46f8e4202dc787df4e8da00b567267a84f44a4894be6640e40c6cbf619b76dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a13…2702backed No | 2c | 1,771$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 825.59$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 714.18$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.12 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 66c | 681.79$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.98 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 52c | 468.22$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.58 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 342.12$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.74 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 61c | 340.98$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.46 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 40c | 300.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.67 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 41c | 266.18$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 229.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 206.75$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.12 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 202.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 23c | 189.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 53c | 177.28$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 174.22$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 171.89$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 155.33$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 149.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 64c | 146.37$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.22 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 144.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 140.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 72c | 138.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 134$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 63c | 123$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 34c | 103.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 79c | 103.13$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 61c | 98.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 37c | 94.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 38c | 91.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 91.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 53c | 90.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 57c | 81.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 33c | 76.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 53c | 75.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 55c | 71.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 69c | 68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 61c | 61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8343…ba81backed No | 66c | 54.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 52.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 24c | 49.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 41.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 77c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 34c | 37.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 32c | 37.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 65c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 33.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 31.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e1…e2a0backed No | 64c | 31.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 30.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 72c | 27.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…b027backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8080…41d3backed Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 63c | 24.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 23.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 69c | 22.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 65c | 20.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 66c | 19.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 59c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…4ed0backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.