Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2d67dd5efa54123bc8c6a5c1a8c79f72de28b08f2eeaf9d8d189d433c3f20a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a13…2702backed Yes | 3c | 1,246$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 1,235$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.14 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 826.28$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 762.11$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 516$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 3c | 405.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 352.36$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.77 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 312.6$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.22 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 48c | 202.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.63 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 198.78$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 190$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 56c | 187.1$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 40c | 173.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 171.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 163.63$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 150$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 59c | 146$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 141.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 43c | 140.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 39c | 139.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 44c | 126$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 43c | 107.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 96.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 60c | 81.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 75.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 24c | 64.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 56c | 60.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 59.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 58.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 52c | 57.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 40c | 55.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 46c | 54.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 39c | 49.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 47.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 68c | 46.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0d…2a37backed Yes | 60c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 54c | 39.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 48c | 38.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f901backed Yes | 38c | 37.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 37.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 37.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 36.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 55c | 36.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 48c | 36.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 35.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 55c | 34.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 44c | 34.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 32.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 43c | 31.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 26.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 25.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…a080backed Yes | 43c | 24.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 58c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 66c | 20.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…079bbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.