Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4c9e49f2a241cc0ae489f229c9c9a0b786592f057c25fed0ba1138558025f6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed Yes | 4c | 580.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 78c | 554.41$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.33 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 28c | 521.28$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.41 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 320$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 32c | 299.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 180.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 40c | 146$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 24c | 124.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 25c | 116.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 99.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 22c | 90.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 82.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…b3aebacked Yes | 41c | 80.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 75c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 29c | 68.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170d…064cbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 56.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 75c | 55.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 69c | 49.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 33.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 31.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…1e65backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 66c | 16.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 71c | 14.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 14.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 20?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 20?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 20?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 20?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.