NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4da8f2c7f77964d5f374a717a571ea05ad4012cae24595c8319a692000f458c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Nuggets, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Bulls | 48c | 4,491$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,335.32 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Nuggets | 52c | 4,106$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.9 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 44c | 1,071$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Nuggets | 58c | 380$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.4 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 52c | 377$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.04 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Nuggets | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Nuggets | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Nuggets | 31c | 165$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nuggets | 54c | 141.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 69c | 128$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ae…5fdebacked Nuggets | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 48c | 108.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…eaf2backed Nuggets | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Nuggets | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls | 48c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Nuggets | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bulls | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Nuggets | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Nuggets | 56c | 18.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Bulls won
- Bulls vs. NuggetsBulls won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.