NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29cbe6b3fa4a5ca6ea7a8d12f719005f8cfe2ccacffe7085a115d58ddb6a405d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Nuggets, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Bulls | 52c | 74,138$38,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,395.55 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Nuggets | 48c | 59,555$28,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,315.25 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bulls | 46c | 21,849$10,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,786.15 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Nuggets | 54c | 20,000$10,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,799.97 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 49c | 13,109$6,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,421.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets | 50c | 10,642$5,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,277.45 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Nuggets | 55c | 7,451$4,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,097.81 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Nuggets | 55c | 7,247$3,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,985.6 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bulls | 51c | 5,593$2,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,740.57 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bulls | 54c | 5,076$2,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,336.3 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Bulls | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Nuggets | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.99 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Nuggets | 48c | 3,600$1,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Bulls | 46c | 3,180$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717.46 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Bulls | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bulls | 45c | 2,760$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,518.13 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bulls | 48c | 2,722$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.44 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 48c | 2,380$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.87 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Bulls | 46c | 2,072$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.93 | 113 | 61.9%70 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Bulls | 46c | 2,044$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.76 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bulls | 54c | 1,944$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.24 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bulls | 53c | 1,600$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets | 49c | 1,227$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.96 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 64c | 1,188$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.69 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Bulls | 48c | 1,111$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.63 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…3308backed Bulls | 46c | 1,085$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.77 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Nuggets | 55c | 885.45$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bulls | 49c | 807$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.57 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Nuggets | 52c | 700$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bulls | 51c | 510$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.9 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Nuggets | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4741backed Bulls | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…b06abacked Nuggets | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 51c | 401$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.49 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Nuggets | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Bulls | 76c | 304.37$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Nuggets | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Bulls | 47c | 219.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.59 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Bulls | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…ff63backed Nuggets | 25c | 203.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Nuggets | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Nuggets | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Nuggets | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Nuggets | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Nuggets | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 55.4%133 W · 107 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Nuggets | 49c | 158.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Bulls | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bulls | 46c | 138$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Bulls | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…b610backed Bulls | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da9…582ebacked Bulls | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bulls | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…f49cbacked Nuggets | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Nuggets | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Bulls | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Bulls | 47c | 99.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Bulls | 46c | 99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Nuggets | 54c | 79.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Nuggets | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7f…f524backed Bulls | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf139…1d3bbacked Bulls | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Bulls | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nuggets | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Bulls | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Nuggets | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Nuggets | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c84…1093backed Nuggets | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Nuggets | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Bulls | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Bulls | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 285 | 47.7%136 W · 149 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…f7b5backed Nuggets | 41c | 39.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…8938backed Bulls | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…d906backed Nuggets | 43c | 35.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…9d86backed Bulls | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4186…bb70backed Nuggets | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbee6…67d2backed Nuggets | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bulls | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…f767backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…3be0backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Bulls won
- Bulls vs. NuggetsBulls won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.