NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4774320ca7df51e60d889c6f5f9aeae9c891b4bfb7a1a5f4e317629b115bbe76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Nuggets, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Nuggets | 44c | 6,862$3,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,005.08 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Bulls | 57c | 3,884$2,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,682.45 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bulls | 56c | 1,586$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.07 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 39c | 1,491$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Nuggets | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 49c | 937$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.36 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls | 48c | 872.93$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.95 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…949fbacked Nuggets | 62c | 481$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Nuggets | 63c | 241.87$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Bulls | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Nuggets | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Nuggets | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Bulls | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Nuggets | 75c | 68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bulls | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets | 64c | 48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Nuggets | 52c | 43.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bulls | 27c | 41.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Nuggets | 68c | 41.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bulls | 37c | 36.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e2…2494backed Bulls | 47c | 33.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Nuggets | 60c | 32.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…a973backed Nuggets | 67c | 29.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Nuggets | 64c | 23.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…4476backed Nuggets | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc58…1dffbacked Bulls | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa798…4240backed Nuggets | 59c | 17.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Bulls won
- Bulls vs. NuggetsBulls won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.