NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd13710d1fe1c33dd95c30656208f2e3b82d55d86717c4fc6e08ffa28b5878d9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Nuggets, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Nuggets | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,799.96 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bulls | 51c | 14,074$7,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,883.81 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Nuggets | 46c | 12,345$5,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,678.7 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 53c | 9,507$5,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,449.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Bulls | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bulls | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Bulls | 54c | 2,300$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Nuggets | 50c | 1,509$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.45 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 47c | 1,370$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bulls | 50c | 1,329$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.5 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f6…6e69backed Bulls | 51c | 1,090$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.15 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f97…13d2backed Nuggets | 50c | 1,090$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Bulls | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Nuggets | 50c | 525$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Bulls | 53c | 447$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.09 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Bulls | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Nuggets | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Nuggets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bulls | 51c | 140$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8b…861dbacked Bulls | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Bulls | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Bulls | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Bulls | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Nuggets | 44c | 53.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…a811backed Nuggets | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Bulls | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bulls | 54c | 48.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ef…f7c4backed Nuggets | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…3348backed Bulls | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Bulls | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Bulls | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…c10abacked Bulls | 51c | 34.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Bulls | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Bulls | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Nuggets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Bulls won
- Bulls vs. NuggetsBulls won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.