NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb02ed487c5c0af2419bb6364f35617fa3aa711c33b15f3586f6ed91809d735fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 24,445$11,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,593.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 52c | 11,596$6,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,509.06 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 53c | 4,500$2,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…d7d5backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 52c | 3,796$1,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,822.3 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 47c | 3,487$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.89 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 53c | 2,758$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.47 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0b…e970backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…103dbacked Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…00f6backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under | 48c | 1,263$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.15 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 54c | 670$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.2 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 54c | 556$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.76 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Under | 47c | 497.59$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.79 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Over | 53c | 496.38$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.3 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 489.93$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.37 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Over | 53c | 443.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.67 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 401.69$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b0…7c8cbacked Under | 47c | 199.77$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…efdbbacked Over | 55c | 195.04$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 54c | 169$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Over | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Under | 47c | 109.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310a…d559backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…00b1backed Over | 54c | 77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Over | 56c | 69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 56c | 67.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 44c | 67.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…78b3backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 47c | 45.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a6…3cd9backed Over | 54c | 39.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…d82dbacked Over | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…fb23backed Over | 54c | 32.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 54c | 22.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Bulls won
- Bulls vs. NuggetsBulls won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.