NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x148c09f3f48de6a6cc74008398818de41ad807bfdf02201721b17a67c1433079

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bullsof Nuggets, Bulls
Resolved: Nov 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,276
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,256

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,276 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd97c…aedbbacked Nuggets	62c	1,253$777 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$777	184	52.7%97 W · 87 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls	40c	1,134$454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$679.64	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bulls	37c	302.4$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.72	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Bulls	36c	236.88$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.98	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Nuggets	59c	200$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	-12.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa198…9601backed Nuggets	61c	179.99$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.79	163	46.6%76 W · 87 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3dd…45d3backed Nuggets	64c	156.25$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	63	55.6%35 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a83…09f0backed Nuggets	59c	150$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.5	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Nuggets	62c	130$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.6	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls	38c	117.72$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.92	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Bulls	43c	106.33$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.95	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked Nuggets	64c	100$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	68	44.1%30 W · 38 L	-7.0wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x261b…b32bbacked Nuggets	62c	90.32$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	107	60.7%65 W · 42 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb358…ff63backed Nuggets	62c	80.65$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeab2…5735backed Nuggets	64c	75.12$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.71	87	41.4%36 W · 51 L	-8.4wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Nuggets	57c	72$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.04	390	51.5%201 W · 189 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc2…d923backed Nuggets	63c	63.49$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	53	50.9%27 W · 26 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7848…5f80backed Nuggets	62c	50$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	-4.5wins	-0.09per pick	62cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5515…451dbacked Nuggets	60c	41.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	52	61.5%32 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	65cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8138…f52cbacked Nuggets	62c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	55	50.9%28 W · 27 L	-5.7wins	-0.10per pick	61cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5729…c366backed Nuggets	58c	39.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	48	50%24 W · 24 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x003b…4da0backed Nuggets	63c	39.68$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	-6.6wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c54…f00ebacked Nuggets	63c	39.68$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	60	61.7%37 W · 23 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	66cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a4…3c66backed Nuggets	60c	30$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	87	58.6%51 W · 36 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bulls	38c	28.6$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.65	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f9d…4ad7backed Bulls	44c	26.79$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe800…0588backed Nuggets	64c	23.44$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaff…db64backed Nuggets	56c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.18per pick	48cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Nuggets	61c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	114	64.9%74 W · 40 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x957e…5758backed Nuggets	64c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cf8…69abbacked Nuggets	63c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb52…8046backed Nuggets	63c	16$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	44	56.8%25 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event