NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d62c8ea2c81f7e2219b46234dfb5a461be2fcb95915917f58a85e812e42e995

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,535
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,732

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,535 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	44c	1,777$777 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000.17	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	56c	1,026$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575.08	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Under	56c	761.03$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429.32	117	55.6%65 W · 52 L	+7.4wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Over	45c	636.24$286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$349.93	288	50.3%145 W · 143 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	50c	389.88$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.08	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under	54c	370.37$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc7…908dbacked Under	59c	310.17$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183	166	50%83 W · 83 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef1a…d048backed Under	35c	199.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	109	43.1%47 W · 62 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d0a…0809backed Under	14c	180$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	75	37.3%28 W · 47 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	45c	136.99$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.83	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Under	54c	131.3$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.9	1,290	44%567 W · 723 L	+35.0wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb69…c773backed Over	46c	117.39$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.39	131	48.9%64 W · 67 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe49a…f498backed Under	59c	101.69$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-6.0wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Under	56c	100$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be8…f449backed Under	55c	91.58$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-5.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2de…6e5cbacked Under	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9d3…246cbacked Under	55c	90.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	143	46.9%67 W · 76 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02a6…9347backed Under	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	61	55.7%34 W · 27 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3873…dec8backed Under	55c	63.87$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	442	43.7%193 W · 249 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Under	57c	61.4$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	710	44.6%317 W · 393 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…748cbacked Under	55c	54.55$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	74	54.1%40 W · 34 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	46c	54.31$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.46	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Under	54c	49.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7972…930fbacked Under	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	-12.3wins	-0.15per pick	63cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under	54c	45.71$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.68	346	45.7%158 W · 188 L	+12.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	44c	41.09$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.17	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Under	55c	40.15$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.08	302	44%133 W · 169 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Under	27c	40$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	249	55%137 W · 112 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over	44c	40$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.4	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Under	56c	38.21$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.4	168	44%74 W · 94 L	-11.8wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94a2…0c1abacked Under	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Under	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	90	48.9%44 W · 46 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6f7…f858backed Under	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	73	61.6%45 W · 28 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe98b…d3bebacked Under	56c	26.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	115	53%61 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x068e…6f16backed Under	56c	26.54$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.86	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.3wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	54c	26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	46c	26$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	597	43.6%260 W · 337 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3162…d21cbacked Under	58c	25.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	88	59.1%52 W · 36 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a18…7a20backed Under	54c	22.22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	69	52.2%36 W · 33 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4acb…8e36backed Under	58c	20.76$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Under	57c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bulls vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event