MLB · resolved market
Mariners vs. Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4de7cc39110a23899e6e9263cbf0a28ea069868920d6e17acb4f8237489dea2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cubsof Mariners, Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Mariners | 14c | 6,434$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mariners | 35c | 2,765$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.56 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Mariners | 1c | 2,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cubs | 60c | 2,250$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.98 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Mariners | 39c | 2,052$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.24 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Mariners | 16c | 1,865$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.24 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Mariners | 14c | 1,750$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3097…a2cabacked Cubs | 61c | 1,660$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…105bbacked Mariners | 39c | 1,658$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Cubs | 79c | 1,513$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.34 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Mariners | 4c | 1,219$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Mariners | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 505 | 3.8%19 W · 486 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cubs | 61c | 1,000$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.25 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Mariners | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,010 | 51.2%517 W · 493 L | +36.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b26…9bc4backed Mariners | 6c | 1,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Mariners | 30c | 831.36$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.03 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Cubs | 61c | 800$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…d582backed Mariners | 40c | 800$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Mariners | 2c | 695.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 466 | 31.1%145 W · 321 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…7d12backed Mariners | 40c | 625$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Cubs | 60c | 543.15$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.26 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Cubs | 60c | 540$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Cubs | 59c | 536.82$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.09 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Mariners | 40c | 499.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.83 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c77…a901backed Mariners | 8c | 450$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Cubs | 60c | 446.14$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.45 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cubs | 66c | 382.97$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.61 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Mariners | 40c | 350.38$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.49 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Cubs | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Cubs | 60c | 330.48$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.19 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Cubs | 60c | 329.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Mariners | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Mariners | 5c | 295$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Mariners | 39c | 256.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Mariners | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 563 | 51%287 W · 276 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Mariners | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cubs | 59c | 181.86$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Cubs | 61c | 169.69$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Cubs | 62c | 162.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 313 | 56.2%176 W · 137 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cubs | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cubs | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…6ea1backed Mariners | 40c | 148.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Mariners | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…d1cabacked Mariners | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Mariners | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac46…ca4abacked Cubs | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Mariners | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 141 | 46.8%66 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Mariners | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…23adbacked Cubs | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Cubs | 60c | 98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Mariners | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Mariners | 40c | 96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Mariners | 39c | 94.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Mariners | 40c | 90.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 249 | 53%132 W · 117 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Cubs | 62c | 88.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…e0fcbacked Mariners | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cubs | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Mariners | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Cubs | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Mariners | 39c | 60.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 338 | 52.1%176 W · 162 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…1467backed Mariners | 39c | 53.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Cubs | 61c | 52.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 247 | 51%126 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…d086backed Mariners | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Cubs | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Mariners | 40c | 44.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 544 | 41.2%224 W · 320 L | -22.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Mariners | 34c | 38.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Mariners | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1239…975dbacked Mariners | 33c | 37.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d651backed Cubs | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cubs | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…4c8dbacked Cubs | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Mariners | 39c | 31.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Cubs | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 195 | 66.2%129 W · 66 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…ad7bbacked Cubs | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Mariners | 40c | 27.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…66afbacked Cubs | 60c | 26.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 164 | 72%118 W · 46 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Mariners | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc811…a5b9backed Mariners | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80fc…c14fbacked Mariners | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba1…adf5backed Cubs | 61c | 20.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…cae4backed Cubs | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.