Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4ed48864fc213b6124b528d16fa64779cc0bb60e4a795632b3dbaa10d471d6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,995$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.25 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 9c | 1,099$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.42 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…95a8backed No | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…51f3backed No | 28c | 900$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…e470backed No | 28c | 735$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…fb43backed No | 13c | 735$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c2…6d37backed No | 28c | 735$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 32c | 682.36$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.7 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 51c | 444.34$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.43 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8436…e2ecbacked Yes | 26c | 369.06$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b41…3606backed Yes | 68c | 340$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 48c | 289.81$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.16 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…5e5ebacked No | 32c | 240$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…05d0backed Yes | 73c | 205.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 10c | 140$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…97c7backed No | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc1…bfedbacked No | 28c | 135$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…b0febacked No | 28c | 135$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7545…9132backed No | 13c | 135$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90c…82e8backed No | 38c | 135$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8960…7ffbbacked No | 38c | 135$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0e…b3f3backed No | 38c | 135$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 78c | 120$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b8…4cdbbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4690…b813backed Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 72c | 62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc14…e34cbacked Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 76c | 42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3f…ccbebacked Yes | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 75c | 30.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…512abacked Yes | 55c | 27.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 25.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2894…c2f7backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on April 4?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or higher on April 4?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on April 4?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on April 4?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on April 4?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on April 4?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.