Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6722285c3efec1bf19fc933e9e7c08f0047e761644653e1a56a007a689d0fc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $185,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $184,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba62…a624backed No | 47c | 77,845$36,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,257.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…2af7backed Yes | 53c | 77,845$41,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,257.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 53c | 1,148$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.94 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,031$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccb…9d1bbacked Yes | 2c | 950$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a83…e78ebacked Yes | 6c | 900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 7c | 785.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e5…ba7dbacked Yes | 4c | 760$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc00…d9e8backed Yes | 22c | 760$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…9560backed Yes | 19c | 760$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…959abacked Yes | 22c | 760$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…b0febacked Yes | 22c | 760$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…c540backed Yes | 22c | 760$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…6081backed Yes | 55c | 715.62$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 51c | 696$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.96 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8436…e2ecbacked Yes | 52c | 621.75$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 58c | 566.96$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.02 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 537.31$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.55 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 499.96$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.09 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 44c | 468.63$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.43 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked No | 49c | 455.62$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.63 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 17c | 341.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 55c | 270.96$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 40c | 238.06$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.51 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 52c | 220$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.1 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 46c | 220$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc229…6e02backed Yes | 48c | 175$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a6…a888backed Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…5cc4backed Yes | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…6111backed Yes | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 119.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4765…c9a0backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 48c | 76.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 54c | 66.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d8…0432backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…ae03backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc45…e0eabacked Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…14e2backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…512abacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 53c | 32.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…53a6backed No | 44c | 31.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 51c | 29.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…07e2backed No | 44c | 28.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 42c | 27.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa9…e577backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1254…bb20backed No | 49c | 23.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc560…1071backed Yes | 58c | 22.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 22.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…64c2backed Yes | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e3…e411backed Yes | 58c | 19.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…c311backed Yes | 57c | 18.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on April 4?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or higher on April 4?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on April 4?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on April 4?Yes won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on April 4?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on April 4?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.