Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa509e888c7a44a5c83f914eb7cf35f45fc56a1b0da93085de0fcb555dc8879b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 43c | 761.52$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.41 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 35c | 466.15$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.58 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 325$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 295.12$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 67c | 243$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 236.95$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.21 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 39c | 193.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 28c | 170$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 67c | 131.69$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 126.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 126.42$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 49c | 123.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 35c | 115.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 108.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 69c | 107$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 30c | 104.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 103$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 29c | 101.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…5c70backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 90$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 87.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 49c | 79.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 77.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 66c | 75.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 74.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 17c | 70.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 69.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 47c | 69.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 66c | 60.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 34c | 59.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 36c | 55.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 66c | 54.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 52.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 72c | 52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 50.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c2…c077backed Yes | 26c | 49.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 48.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 71c | 45.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 64c | 44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 30c | 43.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 39.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 33c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 37c | 32.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 64c | 30.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 30.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 66c | 30.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 30.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 67c | 28.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 27.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 67c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 63c | 23.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b0…cc9cbacked Yes | 57c | 21.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 67c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 56c | 19.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 80c | 18.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 16.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 70c | 15.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 72c | 14.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.