South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5276a63e8099b6d89791fb024e7305dfaa236a2140197b06fb545dbec01bbf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 30c | 4,775$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.84 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 30c | 2,409$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.7 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 70c | 2,337$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.99 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 70c | 1,751$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.93 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 22c | 1,445$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.47 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 30c | 1,316$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.14 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 1,186$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.23 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 70c | 1,103$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.38 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 70c | 875.1$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.53 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…2b48backed Under | 71c | 642.96$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.46 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 30c | 568$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…cce5backed Under | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 74c | 401.49$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 33c | 280.39$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 30c | 266.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 30c | 172.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…85fbbacked Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 32c | 106.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 155 | 54.2%84 W · 71 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 123 | 38.2%47 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 19c | 68.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 70c | 67.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 75c | 66.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 145 | 63.4%92 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: Botafogo FR O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: EC Vitória 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: EC Vitória O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: EC Vitória O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)EC Vitória won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)EC Vitória won
- Spread: EC Vitória (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: EC Vitória (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.