South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3655609012441d452899cba7f34e6d98b15441daf34a290457b8e1c7aef89980
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 53c | 4,812$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550.36 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 47c | 3,199$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.51 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.95 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 2,137$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.13 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 47c | 2,090$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.29 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.99 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…fc37backed Over | 54c | 1,776$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.22 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…cce5backed Under | 47c | 1,200$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 49c | 1,020$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.72 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 839.7$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.74 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 33c | 690.22$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.17 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 45c | 439.14$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.53 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 53c | 412$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.14 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Over | 52c | 384.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed Under | 52c | 378.68$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.29 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Over | 50c | 377.21$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.47 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 36c | 372.78$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 33c | 310$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 50c | 239.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.39 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Over | 53c | 236.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.24 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4d…be6fbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 49c | 203.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.64 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked Under | 46c | 195.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 63c | 192.78$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Over | 52c | 180$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 177.34$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 70c | 175.7$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 48c | 140$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 46c | 112.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 107.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 47c | 105.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114e…dcefbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 92.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 55c | 91.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 48c | 80.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Over | 19c | 79.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 60c | 71.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 30c | 68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 63c | 66.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 53c | 62.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 48c | 60.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 49c | 47.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e65…cfb7backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec8…c5d4backed Over | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…b765backed Under | 74c | 41.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…131dbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 51c | 39.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e7…090fbacked Under | 52c | 39.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 75c | 38.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b3…8b6dbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 45c | 32.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Under | 46c | 32.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -6.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 30.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149d…0ecfbacked Over | 53c | 29.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Over | 52c | 28.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 46c | 26.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 64c | 24.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 55c | 23.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked Under | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff0…0a65backed Over | 52c | 21.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 54cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 60c | 21.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a78bbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: Botafogo FR O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: EC Vitória 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: EC Vitória O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: EC Vitória O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)EC Vitória won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)EC Vitória won
- Spread: EC Vitória (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: EC Vitória (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.