South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x170f8feef72fabc67c4b19494b7dbdc2a50fbaaa4a386c461726378a9db83ec5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- EC Vitóriaof Botafogo FR, EC Vitória
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Botafogo FR | 31c | 15,156$4,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,696.86 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed EC Vitória | 77c | 6,231$4,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.35 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Botafogo FR | 21c | 4,299$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.13 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed EC Vitória | 69c | 3,774$2,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.71 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked EC Vitória | 69c | 1,829$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.99 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed EC Vitória | 69c | 1,693$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.94 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked EC Vitória | 69c | 1,627$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.37 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Botafogo FR | 31c | 1,397$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.54 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked EC Vitória | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Botafogo FR | 30c | 890.71$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.06 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Botafogo FR | 30c | 823$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.9 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked EC Vitória | 70c | 802.46$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.14 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed EC Vitória | 70c | 801.89$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.57 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed EC Vitória | 74c | 509.38$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.78 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Botafogo FR | 3c | 499.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb109…d40fbacked EC Vitória | 76c | 264.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…a604backed EC Vitória | 78c | 256.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed EC Vitória | 69c | 236$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed EC Vitória | 79c | 229.36$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Botafogo FR | 31c | 183.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Botafogo FR | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c7…216abacked EC Vitória | 69c | 144.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…2b48backed EC Vitória | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed EC Vitória | 69c | 131.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked EC Vitória | 69c | 128$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 179 | 51.4%92 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed EC Vitória | 70c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed EC Vitória | 69c | 97.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Botafogo FR | 31c | 93.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed EC Vitória | 69c | 86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Botafogo FR | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed EC Vitória | 74c | 74.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed EC Vitória | 69c | 46.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed EC Vitória | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed EC Vitória | 74c | 32.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…70c5backed Botafogo FR | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed EC Vitória | 69c | 31.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed EC Vitória | 69c | 30.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed EC Vitória | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed EC Vitória | 75c | 25.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed EC Vitória | 78c | 25.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a1…ab16backed EC Vitória | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed EC Vitória | 69c | 25.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed EC Vitória | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 145 | 63.4%92 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked EC Vitória | 73c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 191 | 64.4%123 W · 68 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed EC Vitória | 70c | 20.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)this page
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: Botafogo FR O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: EC Vitória 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: EC Vitória O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: EC Vitória O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 0.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. EC Vitória: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)EC Vitória won
- Spread: EC Vitória (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: EC Vitória (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.