Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa52e5767a14f84e7b55aaa32117933997ff301c0da555b96323fed956d029f63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 29c | 425.18$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 302.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 276.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 225.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 222.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 67c | 214.36$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 205.14$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 25c | 202$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 16c | 202$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…522dbacked Yes | 36c | 201.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 161.95$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 159.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 154.95$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 42c | 138.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 40c | 124$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 120.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 115.29$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 107$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 102$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 60c | 102$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes | 27c | 97.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 47c | 96.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 75.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 24c | 72.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 69.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 64c | 69.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 65.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 60c | 65.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 32c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 59.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 38c | 58.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 64c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 67c | 52.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 75c | 51.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 44c | 50.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…6505backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 49.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 22c | 49.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 38c | 49.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 25c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 44.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 37c | 39.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 36.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fab…1ca3backed Yes | 54c | 29.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 25.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d62…72cdbacked No | 63c | 25.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 24.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…79f7backed No | 64c | 24.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…4e2abacked No | 74c | 23.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 22.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8530…105ebacked Yes | 50c | 21.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 17.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 62c | 17.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 78c | 17.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 66c | 16.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 75c | 13.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.